Good Morning,

The markets are steady to open the morning with corn up 1 and soybeans down 1. The markets are trying to navigate the trade fears and leaving fundamentals on the sidelines for now. We have no fundamental reason for corn and soybeans to be trading as low as they have been for the last few days, but political strength is and will continue to pressure the markets. Yesterday the European Union triggered its first phase of retaliation to the US by releasing a list of products that will have a 25% tariff applied. Soybeans were not on this list, but corn was.

The drought monitor shows improvement for central North Dakota this week as well as some drought receding in Kansas. The drought classification worsened in areas of Southern Iowa and Northern Missouri. Forecasts call for favorable temperatures and moisture over the next week with the first week of July looking warmer and drier for the Midwest.

Weekly exports released this morning were terrible for corn and disappointing for soybeans. Corn came in at 6.5 million bu. compared to the ten week average of 32.6 million. Soybeans came in at 11.1 million bu. compared to the ten week average of 13.2 million. Both are hanging slightly above USDA projections but have fallen in the last few weeks.

The Funds are short 95,000 corn and 69,000 soybean contracts after yesterday’s trade.

Until we see some progress made on the trade wars I do not expect the markets to move higher.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
ggard@didionmilling.com
920-348-6844

Good Morning,

Back at it again!! The markets are down sharply this morning after President Trump announced another set of 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports later yesterday. There is no proposed date on when this round of tariffs will go into effect. The last round of tariffs are expected to begin July 6th. China’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday urged the US to stop its damaging words and deeds after Trump made the most recent threats. The Chinese ministry said that it did not want a trade war, but was not afraid of one.
Last nights crop progress report showed US corn at 78% good/excellent, up 1% from last week. This compares to 67% last year and 71% on the five year average. Wisconsin came in at 90% good/excellent compared to 71% last year and 76% for the five year average.
December corn hit a new contract low of 3.68 overnight and the front month corn hit its lowest level since January.
Corn and soybeans are trading 8 and 24 lower respectively this morning.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Great weather and trade wars continue to take their toll on the markets heading into this week. The forecast fo the Corn Belt features continued heat early this week before the front stalls over the Midwest bringing rain from Nebraska to the Ohio River Valley from midweek onwards. The heat that we saw this weekend will be pushed south with cooler Canadian air ushering in more seasonal temps across the Midwest.
Late on Friday, China retaliated by applying a 25% tariff on a slew of US AG products that included meats, dairy, soybeans and grains. The response was expected after China provided the US frequent warnings of its intentions following our own announcement of tariffs earlier in the day. Subsequently, China’s offer to buy another $70 billion of US Ag and energy goods is now off the table and US – China trade negotiations will have to restart from scratch.
Anyone looking for a rebound in the markets to make old and new crop sales before harvest may have run out of time! The weather has been just about ideal and crop conditions will remain high in the G/E category. The only bump that we can hope for right now is the US working out its trade issues with China to increase demand.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The markets are sharply lower again this morning with the expectations that President Trump will announce the implementation of new tariffs on Chinese imports today. There is also talk of a second list of tariffs that are expected early next week if the Chinese retaliate. With these announcement’s coming today, it is expected that the Chinese will retaliate with their own list of tariffs. It is expected that soybeans will be on Chinas list of goods.
Mexico is considering striking a $4 billion annual import of US corn and soybeans if President Trump escalates a trade spat with new tariffs on goods from Mexico.
After yesterdays close, the funds are reported to be long 1700 contracts of corn and short 12,000 contracts of soybeans. They have liquidated 176,000 contracts of corn and 102,000 contracts of soybeans in the last month. If we can get the trade tariffs out of the news this market should stabilize for the short term. Weather still remains favorable but I feel we have 3 more weeks of opportunity before this crop is made. If we fail to see any dry patterns in the Midwest over the next three weeks look for the markets to repeat last years levels.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The next 48 hours are going to be very critical to the long term trade as the world waits to see if the US follows thru on its Chinese tariffs that are supposed to be implemented tomorrow. Traders are fearful that if these tariffs are implemented, we will see retaliation tariffs from the Chinese that will greatly impact the farming sector. President Trump is meeting with advisors today considering the tariff situation.
Weekly exports increased in both corn and beans for the week ending 6/7/18. Corn came in at 36.9 million bushels while soybeans were at 19.1 million bushels. This is the highest bean export since early April. Both corn and soybeans were slightly above the 10 week average.
Yesterday afternoon private analyst Informa released their estimate of the 2018 corn acreage. They had corn at 88.7 million acres vs. the USDA’s March number of 88.0. Soybeans were at 89.9 vs. the USDA March number of 89.0. The USDA will release its June acreage and yield estimates on 6/29/18. Historically the June acreage for corn compared to the March intentions has increased 13 of the last 18 years. With the expectation for more acres and an above trend line yield the markets will remain under pressure unless weather becomes an issue.
Political pressure has the corn market trading 9 lower this morning and soybeans down 7. This is just move supporting evidence why producers need to actively sell rallies like we saw on Tuesday! Look at charts under Market Insight on our web page for historical trends in June.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com