Good Morning,

Great weather and trade wars continue to take their toll on the markets heading into this week. The forecast fo the Corn Belt features continued heat early this week before the front stalls over the Midwest bringing rain from Nebraska to the Ohio River Valley from midweek onwards. The heat that we saw this weekend will be pushed south with cooler Canadian air ushering in more seasonal temps across the Midwest.
Late on Friday, China retaliated by applying a 25% tariff on a slew of US AG products that included meats, dairy, soybeans and grains. The response was expected after China provided the US frequent warnings of its intentions following our own announcement of tariffs earlier in the day. Subsequently, China’s offer to buy another $70 billion of US Ag and energy goods is now off the table and US – China trade negotiations will have to restart from scratch.
Anyone looking for a rebound in the markets to make old and new crop sales before harvest may have run out of time! The weather has been just about ideal and crop conditions will remain high in the G/E category. The only bump that we can hope for right now is the US working out its trade issues with China to increase demand.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The markets are sharply lower again this morning with the expectations that President Trump will announce the implementation of new tariffs on Chinese imports today. There is also talk of a second list of tariffs that are expected early next week if the Chinese retaliate. With these announcement’s coming today, it is expected that the Chinese will retaliate with their own list of tariffs. It is expected that soybeans will be on Chinas list of goods.
Mexico is considering striking a $4 billion annual import of US corn and soybeans if President Trump escalates a trade spat with new tariffs on goods from Mexico.
After yesterdays close, the funds are reported to be long 1700 contracts of corn and short 12,000 contracts of soybeans. They have liquidated 176,000 contracts of corn and 102,000 contracts of soybeans in the last month. If we can get the trade tariffs out of the news this market should stabilize for the short term. Weather still remains favorable but I feel we have 3 more weeks of opportunity before this crop is made. If we fail to see any dry patterns in the Midwest over the next three weeks look for the markets to repeat last years levels.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The next 48 hours are going to be very critical to the long term trade as the world waits to see if the US follows thru on its Chinese tariffs that are supposed to be implemented tomorrow. Traders are fearful that if these tariffs are implemented, we will see retaliation tariffs from the Chinese that will greatly impact the farming sector. President Trump is meeting with advisors today considering the tariff situation.
Weekly exports increased in both corn and beans for the week ending 6/7/18. Corn came in at 36.9 million bushels while soybeans were at 19.1 million bushels. This is the highest bean export since early April. Both corn and soybeans were slightly above the 10 week average.
Yesterday afternoon private analyst Informa released their estimate of the 2018 corn acreage. They had corn at 88.7 million acres vs. the USDA’s March number of 88.0. Soybeans were at 89.9 vs. the USDA March number of 89.0. The USDA will release its June acreage and yield estimates on 6/29/18. Historically the June acreage for corn compared to the March intentions has increased 13 of the last 18 years. With the expectation for more acres and an above trend line yield the markets will remain under pressure unless weather becomes an issue.
Political pressure has the corn market trading 9 lower this morning and soybeans down 7. This is just move supporting evidence why producers need to actively sell rallies like we saw on Tuesday! Look at charts under Market Insight on our web page for historical trends in June.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

June 13, 2018

Good Morning,

Corn is down one and soybeans down ten to start the day off. Mixed emotions shown to the market today between decreased stocks and more tariff news. USDA pegged stocks to use at 10.8% yesterday, which is the tightest level since 2013, this tighter supply could lead to buying in the coming days. Trump is threatening he could impose tariffs by Friday on Chinese goods.

Biofuel reform news has taken a back seat since last week, when the Trump Administration said they were not going to reform for aid to oil refiners. Though, on Tuesday, EPA officials have given hope that higher ethanol blend gasoline could still happen.

It’s great that smaller stock numbers have gotten attention, in hopes of finding some support level and direction for making sales. We aren’t to the middle of June yet, with that being said, there is a lot of weather and forecast change that can happen yet. If the market does keep climbing: make sales and offers, do not bank on huge weather premiums.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Additional technical selling in corn, beans and wheat yesterday as traders continue to unwind their long positions with good crop ratings and favorable weather. Yesterday’s weekly corn ratings dropped 1 point to 77% G/E which compares to 67% last year and 70% for the 5 year average. Wisconsin remained unchanged from last week at 91% G/E. The early condition of this years crop is going to make it very difficult to rally this market, which is why I believe producers should have firm offers in just above the market for old and new crop corn. Producers should have 70-80% of their old crop sold and 40-50% of their new crop booked at this point. Sales for the 2019 crop of 10% are also recommended.

The USDA S&D report will be out at 11am today. Below are today’s estimates. Check back shortly after 11 for the real numbers.

USDA 2017-18 ending stocks (billion bu)
USDA June 12 Ave Est. USDA May
Corn 2.166 2.182
Soybeans .522 .530
Wheat 1.079 1.070

USDA 2018-19 ending stocks (billion bu)
USDA June 12 Ave. Est. USDA May
Corn 1.663 1.682
Soybeans .417 .415
Wheat .958 .955

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com