May 4, 2022
Good morning,
Weaker markets to open the day with corn down 2 and soybeans down 4 while wheat is up 25.
The lead headline this morning are the increased sanctions by the EU against Russia. The EU has proposed and phased oil embargo against Russia. The EU would phase out Russian supplies within the next 6 months and refined products by the end of 2022. The EU has yet to target Russian natural gas, used to heat homes and generate electricity across the bloc.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is expected to raise interest rates by half of a percentage point and announce the start of reductions to its $9 trillion balance sheet as U.S. central bankers intensify efforts to bring down high inflation.
Ukraine’s grain traders union UGA yesterday reported the 2022 spring planting campaign at 31% complete, or 4.7 million hectares (11.6 mln acres); the planned 11.45 mln ha (28.3 mln ac) would be 3.5-4.0 mln ha less than last season. Corn planting stands at 1.27 mln ha out of 3.9 mln ha expected.
The 7 day forecast for US weather is finally a little less wet than its been. Some holes are opening up in the weather pattern and the rain to the North looks much lighter overall. The 10 day forecast is still wet and only some areas will see heavy rain. The extended model dries out a bit as well in the 11-15 day.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
May 2, 2022
Good morning,
Weaker markets to start the week with corn down 14 and soybeans down 32.
The Fed is meeting this week and they will be raising interest rates again. The rise is expected to be at least .5 points. Most commodity, metals and energies are lower off the rate hike.
Crop progress is expected to be in the 18-20% completed percentage for corn plantings and 15-17% for soybeans. Spring wheat should be in the 20% range as slow planting has affected progress. Overall, we are about half of what we had planted on this date last year. Some are saying Hard wheat ratings will be lower, but at some point, they have to start heading higher as it has been raining.
We are trading lower ahead of the Fed meeting, but there isn’t anything bearish going on here today. Crop planting will be difficult, and the Ukraine gets worse by the day. These stories have been in the market and will keep it supported. All markets are high and look to stay that way until something bigger changes. A switch to warmer and drier on the models would set up a larger correction if this crop can get planted.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
April 26, 2022
Good morning,
Turnaround Tuesday! Corn is up 6, soybeans up 12 and wheat is up 30 to start the day.
Wheat is leading prices higher after the loss in ratings. Planting is delayed as well; in a year we cannot afford poor yields or any loss of acres to prevent plant. Wheat ratings dropped another 3 points yesterday and now sit at 27% good to excellent. These are some of the worst ratings on record for wheat, with Kansas ratings down 7% to 26% good to excellent.
National corn planting progress came in at 7% complete as of Sunday night, up from 4% last week but behind 16% last year and the 15% 5-year average pace; initial emergence reporting came in at 2%, behind 3% both last year and on average. Soybean planting rose from 1% to 3% this week, behind 7% LY and the 8% 5YA, with spring wheat planting advancing from 8% to 13% this week, behind 27% LY and the 15% 5YA pace.
The limits and the CBOT will expand next Monday from 35 cents in corn to 50 cents, from 90 cents in beans to 1.15 and wheat will be lowered from 85 cents down to 70 cents.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
April 25, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are mixed this morning with corn up 4 and soybeans down 23.
Extended rainfall and the potential for US producers to hit the USDA’s bean acreage estimates are working the markets this morning. It also looks like some of the break in the markets today is being led by crude oil. Traders are eying increased interest rates and the slowdown in China due to covid as reasons we may see decreased demand.
The 10-day forecast for US weather is very wet, which is not what models were showing last week going home. The Central US will see heavy coverage from 1-5 inches in the next week. Several storm systems move around the US in the 15-day forecast. This is not one event, but many.
Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of April 1 at 12.105 million head, or 101.7% of last year—that was well ahead of the average 100.4% trade estimate. March placements came in at 99.6% of LY, also well ahead of the 92.2% guess, with March marketing’s much closer to matching trade expectations at 98.0%, versus the 98.2% guess.
Today’s finish in the markets should set the tone for the week. Will the wet forecast and increased cattle numbers support the market or will crude oil and historically high prices push for more selloff.
I traveled to Louisville over the weekend and was surprised by the lack of field work that was being done. Aside from central IL (Champaign) area, It looked to me like fields were fit and there should have been a lot more activity. I saw tillage equipment and planters rolling on the trip, but not the numbers I would have expected.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
April 20, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are mixed to open the day with corn down 4, soybeans up 4 and wheat down 24.
It looks like the markets in energies, metals and most commodities are awaiting the outcome of developments in the Ukraine war. A Russian ultimatum to Ukrainian troops in Mariupol to surrender or die expired on Wednesday afternoon with no mass capitulation, but the commander of a unit believed to be holding out in the besieged city said his forces could survive just days or hours. Thousands of Russian troops backed by artillery and rocket barrages were attempting to advance elsewhere in what Ukrainian officials call the Battle of the Donbas – a push by Moscow to seize two eastern provinces it claims on behalf of separatists.
China’s soybean output is set to increase by 25.8% in 2022, an agriculture ministry official said on Wednesday, amid major efforts to boost oilseed production. The land planted with soybeans will expand by 16.7% this year, said Tang Ke, director general of the market department, under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 3.37 million tonnes last month from the U.S., down from 7.18 million a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
The current forecast for the Central US and Upper Plains is wet over the next 10 days. There will be two more storms move through the Midwest in the next week, then we look to have warmer and drier weather. Heavy rains will fall in the Delta of up to 4-5 inches in the next week and the Central US will see 1-3 inches. The only strong evidence of drought is out in Nebraska, Western Kansas and South Dakota.
These markets are due for a major correction at any time. The Russians think they are on the verge of a major victory, and that very well may be the case. I think that’s why prices are backing off. All the late buyers of corn, beans and wheat are holding very risky positions as we are at decade high prices. There are more things that can turn negative than positive at this point.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
