Good morning,

Markets are higher this morning with July corn up 2 and December corn up 11. Soybeans and wheat are both 9 higher this morning.

Germany’s foreign minister today joined the crowd in calling for active solutions to getting grain out of Ukraine and combatting world hunger, with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken laying blame on Russian blockades as well— neither took any further immediate action. Romania continues to export Ukrainian grain but is calling for E.U. support and investment, as their main neighboring port of Constanta is having trouble handling increase volumes.  Odessa looks to be one of the main targets by Putin and an increase in bombing that port is expected.  They are not going to let grain leave the Ukraine unless they sell it.

Private analysts APK-Inform raised their 2022 Ukraine grain production estimate from 48.3 to 52.4 MMT, with wheat up from 17.1 to 18.2 MMT and corn up from 25.2 to 27.7 MMT. 2022/23 Ukraine grain exports went from 39.4 to 40.6 MMT, including 13.2 MMT of wheat and 25.7 MMT of corn.

The funds have spent the week exiting their long July positions as we approach first notice day. While weather forecasts have improved for the long term, I believe the fund movement has been the biggest market mover this week. Next weeks weather forecasts will be critical to the markets. If the ridge forms and longer term forecasts call for hot and dry, we will rally heading into the 4^th weekend. If not, we will probably have printed the highs for old and new crop corn for the year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are sharply lower across the board this morning with corn down 22, wheat down 24 and soybeans down 48.

It’s all about the weather and the funds liquidating their position.  This will be day three of the break and I’m hoping this is the low for the week.  Prices are high, so when they go down it’s not going to be nickels and dimes.  This liquidation is going to push an awful lot of longs and speculators out of the market. It is normal to see a break like this as first notice day is not very far away and there is a considerable long in July futures.

New corn is in the 6.60’s and beans are in the 14.40’s.  Corn has lost 80 cents in 4 days and beans have lost 1.40.  Prices are still high and most of the weather premiums have been pulled out

The forecast for the Central US is mostly warm and dry. Rain is falling in Kansas and into Western Missouri.  Looking at the 10-day outlook and into the 11-15, the best chances of rain are for Iowa on July 2nd and 3rd.  This is at the very end of the models but has shown up there for a couple days.  The ridge breaks down this weekend and we may see pop up showers.  This is the wetter market risk that is causing the break.  Over the next 15 days rain will be limited and the ridge does return next week and stay in place for the first week of July.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Split markets this morning as corn is up 2 and soybeans are down 20.

Corn is trying to find some support this morning while soybeans are down double digits led by weakness in soybean oil. Palm oil was down 482 ringgits on expectations of export expansion. Crude oil is down over 4.0% as President Biden is expected to call on Congress to suspend the federal gas (18.4 cents/gallon) and diesel tax (22.4 cents/gallon) for three months.

Yesterday’s crop conditions in corn came in at 70% G/EX (-2%/wk) and compared to 65% last year. IL dropped to 71% G/EX (-6%), IA was 83% G/EX (-35), IN was 70% G/EX (-4%), and KS was 55% G/EX (-3%). Improvements were seen in MN at 65% G/EX (+7%), NE was 68% G/EX (+3%) and SD was 79% G/EX (+3%). Soybean conditions were 68% G/EX (-2%) and compared to 60% G/EX last year. The one outlier was IL at 66% G/EX (-10%).

The forecast for the Central US is mostly warm and dry. It was plenty hot yesterday as the ridge was at its peak in strength.  Temps will level out over the next week and remain warm in the high 80’s to low 90’s.  A few chances of rain exist, however there is no pattern change to wet.  Rainfall has been pretty light over the last few weeks, and it looks to stay that way on the 10 day model and the 11-15.  The ridge is forecast to move back into a more amplified position at the beginning of July in the Central Us.  This forecast is not 2012 bullish, but certainly not bearish.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Weaker markets to start the day with corn down 5 and soybeans down 32.

Last Friday’s crop report brought few surprises as the USDA changed very little on the balance sheets.  The only major adjustments were a reduction of 200 million bushels of corn exports and a slight increase in beans exports.

USDA 2021/22 US Carryout (Billion Bu)

USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (Billion Bu)

The forecast for the Central US is moving into a hot dry pattern.  The weather pattern that is setting up has almost no rain for the Central US over the next two weeks.  The hot air mass is entering the US today and builds into the very end of the 15-day model run.  This dome locks out almost a storm activity pushing all the rain into the Northern US and Canada.

Today’s US crop conditions in corn are expected to remain steady at 73% G/EX with the first soybean ratings of the season expected to come in between 68%-72% G/EX. Spring wheat planting progress will be monitored closely with just 82% planted last week and wet conditions lingering last week in ND & MN. Some corn acres in those areas will likely be switched to soybeans as well.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is unchanged while soybeans and wheat both opened 20 higher this morning.

We have not had a massive liquidation in the corn market for months, but have definitely seen it this week. December corn traded below 7 dollars for the first time in 8 weeks. We have basically wiped out the rallies seen in corn and wheat over the last couple months. We are now back to where it all started in the spring when India announced they would limit exports on wheat.

Ukraine’s grain traders’ union UGA estimated 2022 wheat production at 19.2 MMT, down 42% from last year’s record 33 MMT harvest; corn output is seen at 26.1 MMT, down from 37.6 MMT last season. They expect Ukraine to export 10 MMT of wheat and 15 MMT of corn from the new harvest, assuming export capacity through border crossings in doubled. Meanwhile, the country’s foreign ag ministry said they were working with international partners to create a United Nations-backed mission to bring back grain shipping route, while the U.S. is attempting to help with temporary storage containers and boost overland shipping corridors.

Any rallies to test the recent highs is going to be challenging with the crop progress and favorable forecast we have on the horizon. My advice is to continue to move old crop corn at $7+ levels and put more new crop sales on to get at least 40-45% sold.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com