Good morning,

Weaker markets to open the day with corn down 4 and soybeans down 18.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet this week which is causing some concern for investors as clues to the imminent rate hikes that may be revealed. This has grains and energy markets lower this morning.

Rain across Southern Argentina over the weekend with amounts of 1.5-4.5 inches.  Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil remained mostly dry.  There are spotty chances of rain over the next 10 days for this same area, which has been in the forecast for the last week. The pattern has shifted to wetter and cooler with the regression of the high-pressure ridge.

The top story is still the tension on the Russian/Ukraine border. NATO said on Monday it was putting forces on standby and reinforcing eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets, in what Russia denounced as an escalation of tensions over Ukraine.  The move added to a flurry of signals that the West is bracing for an aggressive Russian move against Ukraine. Russia denies planning to invade Ukraine but has used its build-up of an estimated 100,000 troops near the border to force the West to negotiate over a range of demands to redraw the security map of Europe.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn and soybeans are feeling the pressure of rains that fell in South America over the weekend. Corn is currently down 3 and soybeans are down 19. The current rain system is going to linger for a while and will give some relief to the crops after the heat that they just endured.

Early planted corn and soybeans suffered irreversible damage from the recent dry conditions, but the later planted crops will benefit from the recent rains. These rains will aid the finishing of planting as roughly 15% of Argentine corn and are still had to be planted as of last week. Cooler temps are expected moving forwards with improved rains expected across Southern Brazil over the next 10 days.

Since the current export season commenced in September in the U.S. and February in Brazil, China’s accumulated soybean imports from the U.S. (December-January) have declined by 30% from a year ago to 17.8 million tons. The figure is lower than the levels prior to the U.S.-China trade war. On the contrary, Accumulated Brazilian soybean imports (April-January) have exceeded the prior season and reached 54.1 million tons. Sufficient supplies in Brazil are going to keep the Chinese sourcing from there until prices or supplies change.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are softer this morning following thru on the overnight selloff with corn currently down 7 and soybeans down 17.

In yesterday’s report, the USDA raised their estimate of the 2021/22 U.S. corn crop by a modest 53 million bushels to 15.115 billion bushels from their previous estimate in November of 15.062 billion. Planted acreage was raised 53k acres to 93.357 million, while harvested area was raised 303k acres to 85.388 million. The average yield held at the November report estimate of 177.0 bushels/acre and will set a new record if it holds through the various final revisions which can occur over the next year or so.

The forecast for South America is just about the same as yesterday.  Rain is forecast for Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil and some of these totals are expected to be heavy.  This is the first meaningful rain in over 6 weeks.  The long-range forecast also has rain in Argentina.

The USDA report is past us and there was nothing to move the market higher or lower which is probably a good thing. Look for the market to monitor South American weather in the coming days and weeks to get direction on what demand may be for US grains.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Report Day!

We have seen a lot of volatility since last years January WASDE report that has pushed corn and soybeans prices to record levels. As COVID concerns continue, South American weather uncertainty and global demand unknown today’s report could push or pull the market in unexpected and violent ways. My opinion is that we will see higher production that should mostly be offset by domestic demand from Q4, but that is just an opinion, and I would suggest heading into this report on the safe side. Safe meaning a good portion of old and new crop sales locked in at present levels with offers for additional sales if we see algorithm trading kick in right after the report.

Here are todays estimates. Final numbers will be updated shortly after the 11:00 am release.

USDA 2021 Harvested Acres (Mln Acres)

USDA 2021 Yield (Bushels per acre)

USDA 2021 Production (Billion Bushels

USDA 2021/22 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Today’s carryout will set the bar and give us direction moving forward. Any surprising numbers in today’s report will most likely be traded today and tomorrow before we resume trading South American weather.

Have a Safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 1 and soybeans are down 4 to start the morning.

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday turned away an industry group’s bid to revive a decision made by the Environmental Protection Agency under former President Donald Trump to allow expanded sales of gasoline that has a higher ethanol blend, called E15.

The action by the justices dealt a blow to the ethanol industry, which wants to increase sales and access to E15. Growth Energy, a biofuels industry group that had filed a petition asking the justices to review a lower court’s ruling vacating the Trump administration E15 policy, expressed disappointment in the Supreme Court’s decision.
The forecast for South America looks a little different from yesterday.  The biggest change is in the long-term temperature maps.  The hot air mass that has been sitting over Southern Brazil and Argentina looks to be backing off.  Current temps are in the 100’s where the crop is seeing maximum stress.  There was also no rain overnight, which is supposed to happen later this week.  Most of the rain that they will see is forecast into Northern Argentina and Eastern Brazil.

This crop report is going to have some wild volatility in it.  We have the final corn and bean yield as well as changes in carryout due to exports and use.  South American production will be taken down, but probably on a slow step by step basis.  The other big one here is the stocks report where we’ve seen all kinds of grain found and lost over the years.  This stocks report could be even more unpredictable because of the port closure in New Orleans back in September and October.  My recommendation is to remove any risk you have in the market and sit on the sidelines until Thursday or Friday when we will be back to trading weather. Small old and new crop sales are advised ahead of the report to lock in current margins.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com