October 21, 2021
Good morning,
The market looks to be putting the brakes on the rally for now. Nothing has fundamentally changed; this looks like two steps forward one step back. Markets are softer this am as corn starts the day off down 4 and soybeans down 12.
Weekly export sales came in strong and could have provided some support, but it has failed to show up today. Weekly corn exports were 50.1 million bushels for corn and 105.8 million bushels for soybeans. Corn was in line with expectations and slightly above the previous week. Soybeans were above estimates and by far the highest in the past several months. As we would expect, world importers will show up to buy on any breaks in the markets.
US weather is going to be really wet over the next week. Rains move in on Sunday and last for about 4 days. Totals will be up to 3 inches over Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. The change to wetter weather will slow harvest, many beans are getting cut this week and yields are coming in on the top range of estimates. Corn yields remain variable, but there are some really good crops out there.
The gut slot of corn harvest is quickly approaching. Reports of on farm storage filling up and longer lines at elevators across the country are to be expected. Make sure you are making plans and sales with your local elevator/end user to get thing delivered.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 19, 2021
Good morning,
Corn and soybeans are both slightly higher this morning with corn up 2 and soybeans up 10.
Corn and soybeans have shifted the attention from supply to demand as harvest progresses along. Corn harvest was reported at 52% complete compared to 41% last week. Soybean harvest is 60% complete compared to 49% last week. Wisconsin corn harvest is being reported as 32% complete compared to 24% last week and 18% for the five year average.
The South American forecast is staying very wet. Most of Brazil will see rain in the next week and more scattered showers thereafter. Amounts of 1-3 inches will fall this week. Argentina is dry for the next 10 days but turns to significantly wetter thereafter. Brazil planting is 22% complete. Soybean farmers in the Center-West and Matopiba regions have been reporting that some fertilizer and glyphosate deliveries have been canceled by suppliers.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 18, 2021
Good morning,
Corn is up 2 and soybeans are up 1 to start the week.
Markets look to start the week off steady to slightly higher this morning as we move into the second half of October. Another great weekend for harvesting with estimates pushing 65% of soybeans completed and 50% of corn harvested.
Favorable weather in South America has led to a fast-planting pace. Mato Grosso is reported 45% of soybeans planted vs the five-year average of 25% and compared to 8% last year.
The forecast for US weather is for spotty rains in the Central US and heavy rains out West. The Pacific Northwest has turned to wet and some of that moisture is pushing over the Rockies. The flow of humidity that was coming up from Texas looks to back off this week. Harvest is expected to be over 50% complete for corn and beans, this weather will help push things along. Temps will stay warm enough over the next week, but a little cooler than its been.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 15, 2021
Good morning,
Corn is up 9 and soybeans are up 10 to start the day.
Rumors that China has bought 10-15 cargos of soybeans of the US Gulf is circulating this morning that has soybeans leading the charge this am. Weekly export sales were solid with corn and soybeans coming within expectations. US prices still remain competitive in the world markets, but are not the best as of this morning. Higher markets will continue to make the US less attractive going forward which may keep a lid on prices into the spring/summer.
Weather risk premiums have shifted back to Brazil as they start their new crop cycle. If they fail to have weather concerns this corn market has the potential to drop another 40-50 cents in the next month with US harvest pressure. I don’t think we trade that low, but we have to realize the risk is there.
Have a safe day and Happy Harvesting!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 14, 2021
Good morning,
Corn and soybeans are both unchanged to start the day. The corn market was down sharply again yesterday as traders continued the selloff following Tuesday’s report.
Following Tuesday’s report there are several traders and analysts that feel the final US soybean crop size could increase and that demand for corn and soybeans could drop from USDA expectations. Harvest pressure along with favorable South American weather will continue to weigh on US prices. Long term I look for soybeans to be the leader in the markets and at this point would expect that direction to be lower. Better yields, lower demand and expectations for a larger South American crop all point to beans heading lower.
Traders will be watching the ethanol production report later this morning to see if we get another solid number after last week’s production of 978K barrels per day.
Reminder that Compeer Financial will be onsite today serving bag lunches from 11am-1:30pm.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
