Good Morning,

Corn is starting the day off 3 lower while soybeans and wheat are up 1 and up 5 respectively. There are rumors that China has purchased 1.5-2.5 mt of corn for new crop and more soybeans out of Brazil. May looks to be a record for exports from Brazil to China.
Export data released by the U.S. Commerce Department yesterday saw March 2021 corn exports rise to 364.5 million bushels, a 122.3-million-bushel increase from the month prior. The monthly haul translated to $2.4 billion for the U.S. food economy and was the highest monthly corn export volume on record since 2008. China edged out Japan as the top destination for U.S. corn in March 2021, snapping up 68.8 million bushels, or 18% of total March 2021 shipments.
Similarly, rapid shipping paces to China of U.S. ethanol led exports of the corn-fed fuel additive to their second highest volumes over the past year. U.S. ethanol exports in March 2021 totaled 133.0 million gallons with 48.3 million of those gallons going to China. Canada was the destination for another 34.2 million gallons.
The market is pushing on higher again with meal, new corn and old bean providing leadership. Wheat is a follower on rallies of which the funds have very little interest in being long. Planting progress will be slowed, but the pace has been good.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up 9 and soybeans are up 16 overnight as the markets rebounded from a slight selloff. The markets were all over the place yesterday but we were able to fill some gaps in corn and soybeans and wheat after the open. The higher limits and increase in margins pared back some positions as the risk and cost may be getting too high for many traders.
Last nights crop progress showed 46% of the corn planted compared to 17% last week and 36% on average. Soybean planting was 24% complete versus 8% last week and 11% on average. The US forecast has a lot of rain in it this morning. Most of the totals will be from the Central US on into the South. Rains fall West of the Dakota’s and none is seen in the Canadian Prairies. Planting progress will be slowed until later in the week with wet weather and the droughty conditions are lessening.
This forecast for South America runs out into May 20th. Both the shorter-term and long-term maps have no rain for Central and Eastern Brazil. This will mark week 8 with almost zero precip in the second crop corn area. The forecast is still bullish, as temps warm up too.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The December corn has traded a 50 cent range from Tuesday morning into the early AM. The market was utter chaos after the 8:30 opening bell, and the algo model traders fought mixed signals back and forth throughout the day. Wheat would trade 12 higher 12 lower 12 higher and finally finish down on the Day. Corn held mostly firm with May continuing to punish the shorts into first notice day. The May contract is still higher this morning with one day left ahead of the roll. Things are out of hand, with all kinds of spreading in meal, bean oil, inter-wheat, old and new crop corn and beans. This is the kind of volatility that is outright dangerous to traders.
The 10 day forecast for South America is mostly the same with dry weather in most of Brazil. The change would be some wet weather in the forecast for Argentina. Temps still in the 80’s to 90’s.
The 10 day forecast for US weather has plenty of rain in the majority of the Central to Southern US. The Dakota’s will be the one of the few dry areas in the next two weeks. The Central US could see up to 3 inches or more of rain. Temps look to be relatively normal for spring. US weather is bearish with plenty of rain. This will be the best conditions to start the season for many in the past 2 years.
Look for this to be a really wild day as the funds are long a lot of corn. When the market is down you can find plenty of bearish stories.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are rebounding this morning after selling off at the open. Old crop corn is up 6 while new corn is unchanged. Please note that May futures are trading significantly higher, but that is not the market to watch as End users are now bidding vs. the July board(CN) instead of the May board(CK) due to the approaching first notice day. This has nothing to do with May trading higher, it is a sequence that happens at the end of every contract month.

U.S. Corn planted was 17% (trade estimate was 17%) versus 8% a week ago, 24% last year, and 20% average. U.S. Corn emerged was 3% versus 2% a week ago, 3% last year, and 4% average. U.S. Soybeans planted was 8% (trade estimate was 8%) versus 3% a week ago, 7% last year, and 5% average.

The 10 day forecast for South America is the same dry pattern that has been locked in for 7 weeks now. Temps will be 80’s-90’s, unchanged. The South American forecast is bullish until we see a significant change in the weather.

The 10 day outlook for US weather has rain forecast for almost the entire Midwest. The only area that will be on the short side are the Dakota’s. This is a forecast that drives prices lower, where there is rain, there is no drought today.

I believe this is a good opportunity to make some sales. The markets have had quite a run recently. That momentum appears to be stalling out a bit, and when that occurs, it usually is a good spot to sell a % of your grain.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets opened up limit in corn this morning and 30 higher in soybeans. They have since fallen off those levels but are still very bullish.
The 10 day forecast for Brazil is dry! There is almost no chance for rain of any sort in the Southern half of all Brazil. The dry corn area is getting smoked. The limited rainfall is said to be reducing the crop by at least 20% and would come directly out of exports. The winter crop would be 68-70 mmt and exports would drop to 9-12 mmt. The total crop in Brazil will be lower than 100 mmt. Argentina is likely to raise export taxes as well to slow inflation and bring in more revenue. It already slaps a 33% tax on international soybean exports; 31% on soymeal and soyoil; and 12% on corn and wheat. This is the reason for the sharp rally in July corn futures.
The trade is expecting 18-20% of the corn planted vs the 5 year average of 20%. Spring wheat plantings are expected to be 28-30% vs 24% average and 7-9% of the beans should be planted vs 5% average.
The 10 day forecast for US weather has a fair amount of rain from the Central Grain belt and South. The Northwestern grain belt will see light chances, with the drought holding in place. Temps will really warm up this week hitting 80 degrees locally tomorrow. Temps will be mostly normal for the 10 and 15 day run.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com