Good Morning,

Markets are higher again this morning with corn up 4, soybeans up 9 and wheat up 15. Yesterday and today’s rally are a result of European and South American weather issues. These issues are pushing Wheat and Soybeans higher and pulling corn along with it.
Friday’s WASDE report from the USDA holds upside price risk on yield and on the inclusion of the FSA acreage data. The October report is where the USDA takes data from the FSA and RMA data and adjusts the planted acres. Yield numbers on corn are expected to drop slightly to 177.7 which is down from the September 178.5 estimate. Soybean estimates are expected to remain unchanged if not higher due to favorable weather. Ending stocks for corn are estimated at 2.113 billion bushel while soybeans are estimated at 390 million bushel.

December corn continues to hang around the $3.88 range on the CBOT and should trade within a 10-15 cent range of this level for a while. With a 2 billion bushel carryout expected now and the majority of harvest ahead of us it will be difficult to get to the next target level ($4.05) until harvest is wrapped up and we have a better idea of production.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are flat to start the week with corn and soybeans trading unchanged while wheat is up 8. Wheat has been the upside leader with Russia facing another two weeks fo dry weather for their winter wheat areas. Corn and soybeans are feeling the pressure of harvest and the beginning of the rainy season in Brazil.
Chinas current holiday which began last Thursday has been extended to 8 days offering a ling anticipated break for many as the country tries to get back on its feed after the Covid-19 outbreak.
The USDA is expected to lower its corn and soybean production estimates on Friday. This could tighten supplies ahead of Brazil’s safrinha crop season but should remain adequate. The dry weather in Brazil could delay the soybean planting due to La Nina dryness which will push harvest there into February. This could increase US prices of soybeans thru the winter months while end users wait on the south American crop. Producers should take advantage of this opportunity by storing soybeans into January-February timeframe.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The USDA threw the traders a curveball yesterday with a bullish September 1st stocks report and wave of unexpected revisions. This helped add some much needed life into the markets and should add support moving forward. While the old crop stocks dropped, early indications on the 2020 crop are much better than expected. I continue to receive reports of record yields in MO, IL, IA, MN and WI. The common theme in all of these reports is test weight! I have been charting test weights for the last 6 years and each of the last five years we have continued to drop. In 2015 the average test weight was 57.4 while the 2019 crop averaged 53.4. Early indications are that this years crop is going to bounce back to the 56+ range which will add up quickly and add to producers production and bottom lines. Each producer will have to monitor his or her own situation but a 5% increase in bushels due to test weight will add up fast in your bins and may result in the need to make more sales this fall.
Yesterday’s rally showed the funds adding 40,000 corn and 30,000 soybean contracts to their already long position. The funds are currently long 111,000 corn and 216,000 soybean contracts.
Harvest should progress nicely over the next couple of weeks with dry/cool weather prevailing across the Midwest through the weekend. However, the ridge/trough pattern will progress east allowing the ridge return to the central US bringing with it warmer/dry weather next week.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are quiet to start the day as traders prepare for this todays September 1st stocks report that will be released at 11am.

Expectations are for NASS to up 2019 soy crop by 23m bu. to 3.575B bu. Average trade estimate for 9/1/20 corn stocks at 2.250B bu is on par with the September 2019 corn stocks although range (high to low) in estimates of over 450M bu. is quite large.
Today’s USDA Grain Stocks report could potentially reflect a revision to last year’s corn crop in similar fashion to how the previous year’s soybean crop has always been reviewed in this report. In the past, USDA did not include a re-examination of the previous year’s corn crop in this report, instead doing so if/when necessary as part of the Annual Crop Production report in January, as well as in the 5-yr Census revisions.
In the past we would not expect USDA to revise last year’s corn crop in this morning’s report as it has not been part of the methodology for the September Grain Stocks report. However, NASS officials have confirmed they did, in fact, go through the same process for corn as always has been the case for soybeans for the release of the report and it will include a revision to last year’s corn crop “if necessary.” This will be part of the September Grain Stocks report permanently for corn moving forward.

USDA September 1 Grain Stocks(billion bu)
9/30/20 Ave. Est. 2019
Corn 1.995 2.250 2.221
Soybeans .523 .576 .909
Wheat 2.159 2.242 2.346

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are on the defensive this morning with corn down 5 and soybeans down 10 as traders wait to see if we can get any Chinese buying before they go on a week long holiday beginning Thursday. We will also have the USDA stocks report out Wednesday and the WASDE on October 9th.

Harvest should progress very quickly now and I anticipate hearing reports of steady harvest paces when the USDA releases its Crop Progress report later today. I expect to see 15%+ for corn and 15% to 20% for beans. Rain delays today and likely tomorrow had little effect on prices this morning, though increasing concerns about rising global coronavirus cases weigh on the markets.

Look for the markets to continue to trend lower with harvest pressure and rising cases of coronavirus.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com