July 16, 2024
Good morning,
Corn is up 3 and soybeans are up 2 to open the day following yesterdays massive selloff in both commodities.
Last night’s storms in Northern IL may go down in history as one of the most prolific tornado producers in the Chicagoland area ever. At one time, there were 16 tornado storms as they approached the suburbs. The possible derecho started in central Iowa around 4 pm and is now approaching the Ohio River. The storm has lost its wind intensities, but there are still flood watches posted from the associated heavy rains. Damage reports are just coming in and it is hard at this time to determine if there was significant crop damage. Regardless of damage reports, it is not going to be in a large enough area to impact the markets.
Corn and soybean condition ratings were steady this week at 68% good/excellent each; the former remains above 57% last year and the 62% five-year average, with the latter ahead of 55% LY and the 60% 5YA.
Rains cover up the Southern US this week and there is no evidence of a dome in the Central US. Some heavy rain fell overnight, mostly in Illinois. When I look at the 15-day forecast the heat stays out west, leaving the east normal for temps.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 12, 2024
Good morning,
Corn is down 7 and soybeans are down 11 to start the day.
Its Friday and its REPORT Day! The USDA will release 2024 and 2025 carryout numbers as well as 2024 production numbers this morning at 11am. Based on recent and current forecasts for weather, things are shaping up to be good this year. While prices are depressed, producers are advised to get sales of old and new crops on the books as the future is not bright today.
Fridays USDA report estimates are listed below.
USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (billion bushels)
| USDA July | USDA June | Average Trade Est. | |
| Corn | 1.877 | 2.022 | 2.049 |
| Soybeans | .345 | .350 | .355 |
USDA 2024 US Yield (bushels per acre)
| USDA July | USDA June | Average Trade Est. | |
| Corn | 181.0 | 181.0 | 180.8 |
| Soybeans | 52.0 | 52.0 | 51.9 |
USDA 2024 Production (billion bushels)4.
| USDA July | USDA June | Average Trade Est. | |
| Corn | 15.100 | 14.860 | 15.063 |
| Soybeans | 4.435 | 4.450 | 4.424 |
USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (billion bushels)
| USDA July | USDA June | Average Trade Est. | |
| Corn | 2.097 | 2.102 | 2.312 |
| Soybeans | .435 | .455 | .449 |
| Wheat | .856 | .758 | .788 |
Check back at 11am for todays update.
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 11, 2024
Good morning,
Corn and soybeans are both up 6 to start the day.
The markets have been tough lately from a producer’s perspective. As the crop marches forward and continues to look better and better, the markets seem to be weeks ahead and projecting a very big yield. Rains in the Midwest have the Funds convinced of above trendline yields and burdensome stocks coming this fall. With the funds position sitting at record short positions, it doesn’t appear that they are going to move things higher unless we harvest a significantly smaller crop. Unfortunately, if that does come to fruition, it won’t be seen in the markets until early Q1.
Corn condition ratings jumped to 68% G/E on Monday which was 6% above the five-year average and 13% above last year.
Demand for US corn has been lagging for some time and low prices are struggling to spark new demand. Corn demand this year is the 3rd largest over the past 5 years which isn’t terrible, but the markets perception is that it is going to get worse due to Chinese demand. China is far behind on purchases from the US.
Fridays USDA report estimates are listed below.
USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (billion bushels)
| USDA July | USDA June | Average Trade Est. | |
| Corn | 2.022 | 2.049 | |
| Soybeans | .350 | .355 |
USDA 2024 US Yield (bushels per acre)
| USDA July | USDA June | Average Trade Est. | |
| Corn | 181.0 | 180.8 | |
| Soybeans | 52.0 | 51.9 |
USDA 2024 Production (billion bushels)
| USDA July | USDA June | Average Trade Est. | |
| Corn | 14.860 | 15.063 | |
| Soybeans | 4.450 | 4.424 |
USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (billion bushels)
| USDA July | USDA June | Average Trade Est. | |
| Corn | 2.102 | 2.312 | |
| Soybeans | .455 | .449 | |
| Wheat | .758 | .788 |
If realized, the above numbers would most likely move the markets lower tomorrow. I would advise producers to get old crop sales and new crop sales on the books ahead of this report.
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 3, 2024
Good morning,
Corn is down 2 and soybeans are up 6 to start the day.
It feels like the market is beginning to level out. The June planting & stocks report is still being digested and disputed, but we are moving on. Going forward, the weather will continue to dominate the market until new crops come out of the field. We will likely see harvest begin in the Deep South within two weeks. National crop conditions remain above the five-year average, hot temperatures are pushing the crop along quicker than in a typical year, and this may put additional pressure on basis values in the south, which will work its way north.
Limited traders today and Friday could lead to some volatility in the markets today considering tomorrow the market is closed in celebration of Independence Day and several will make it a four-day weekend.
As I noted earlier this week, once we hit the Fourth of July it becomes difficult for the markets to rally. Make sure you are getting sales on the books for old and new crops before we see a $3 in front of the cash bid.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 1, 2024
Good morning,
Markets are lower to start the month of July with corn down 5 and soybeans down 2.
We are seeing some follow through selling after Fridays WASDE report. In case you missed it the report had corn acreage at 91.475 million vs pre-report estimates of 90.353 million. We had soybean acreage at 86.1 vs estimates at 86.75 million acres. Stocks were neutral/bearish as corn stocks came in roughly 120 million bushels above estimates at 4.99 billion bushels and soybeans were basically right in line at 970 million vs estimates at 962 million. These numbers were bearish corn and neutral soybeans.
Now that the USDA has settled the acreage issue, the trade will focus on weather and try to define the yield potential. Yield is in the hands of mother nature and the weather over the next couple of months with the next few weeks being some of the most critical as we get closer to pollination. Current weather models are wetter and cooler which should be favorable.
While prices may not be where we want them, things could get worse by the time we get to harvest. I would advise producers to get some new crop sales on the books as the markets historically trend lower once we hit July. (see attached graph with the last ten years)

Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
