July 2, 2019
Good Morning,
Markets are currently down, but are expected to remain steady throughout the day. Corn is down 2 cents and soybeans are down 9 cents. Through the overnight of trade, markets seemed to have consolidated a bit after the weekly crop progress report was released yesterday afternoon. Crop ratings came in essentially unchanged from the prior week’s report. Corn remains at 56% good to excellent on a national level and Wisconsin corn is right at that mark with 56% good to excellent as well. To a bit of a surprise, we did see some big drops in the ratings of the ECB states with IL dropping 5% good to excellent, IN dropping 4%, and OH dropping 8%. However, those drops in ratings were made up from the increases we saw from the corn out west and that is how we remain unchanged on a national level. Soybeans came in at 54% good to excellent on a national level and 61% good to excellent here in the state of Wisconsin. With the markets now moving on from last Friday’s acreage/stocks report and the fact that the re-survey data won’t be here until August, I think the attention will shift back to the weather. The yield debate will definitely be brought into the spotlight in the weeks to come. The weather outlook does seem to have more normal temperatures on the horizon and above average precipitation. Most are viewing this as ideal weather for early crop development, which will probably keep the markets from entering into any rally soon. Weather will definitely be the big driver of the markets here in the next few weeks since yield will be determined from how this corn develops. I would recommend calling in the next few days before the holiday to discuss opportunities of locking in old crop or new crop at profitable levels.
Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com
July 1, 2019
Good Morning,
Markets are currently trading lower with corn down 10 cents and soybeans down 5 cents. Many traders are still left scratching their heads from the report that was released this past Friday. Following the release, there was such a backlash against some of the data that the USDA said they are going to redo the survey in July and, if need be, they will give us an updated intended acres planted on August 12th’s report. The biggest skepticism came from the corn acreage number that came in at 91.7 million acres planted. This was 5 million acres above the average of many analysts’ estimates. This sent trade in a whirlwind and on Friday corn closed 20 cents lower than the previous day of trade. As the new week begins, trade will continue to search for an answer to where the acreage number is at and what yield will turn out to be. The weather across much of the Corn Belt looks favorable in the next 6-10 days. In our area, slight to moderate chances of showers are expected throughout the week with warmer temperatures remaining. In the 11-15 day time frame, warmer temps will be giving way to a cooler pattern going forward. Overall, I believe trade will be volatile in the few weeks to come due to questionable data. I believe it will be hard for corn prices to make another jump above the highs we saw this last month. It is going to take something drastic to move corn prices with such a large acreage number looming in the mind of many traders and some favorable weather in the forecast. I would recommend calling in today to discuss the best marketing opportunities for your operation.
Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com
June 28, 2019
Good Morning,
Through this morning of trade, corn is currently unchanged and soybeans are up 4 cents. Some heavy rains have moved through the Northern Corn Belt in the last 24 hours and continue into this morning. The bulk of the rain fell from southern MN to central WI where there has been reports of up to 4-6” in some areas. Chances of rain seem to have amped up a bit in the last 24 hours for the region. Rains are expected to return late this weekend and continue throughout the week next week. Some highly anticipated data from the USDA will be released at 11 a.m. and any shocks to the report is expected to cause some aggressive price movements in either way. I would recommend calling today to discuss opportunities to contract grain before and after the report. Below is the USDA June acreage and stock report estimates:
U.S planting of major crops for 2019 harvest (in million acres):
USDA June 28 estimate Average of analyst’s estimates USDA June 11 WASDE
Corn 91.7 86.662 89.8
Soybeans 80.0 84.355 84.6
All wheat 45.6 45.654 45.8
U.S. Quarterly Stocks as of June 1 (in billions of bushels):
USDA June 1 Estimate Average on analyst’s estimates USDA March 1, 2019
Corn 5.2 5.332 8.605
Soybeans 1.8 1.861 2.716
Wheat 1.0 1.100 1.591
Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com
June 28, 2019
Good Morning,
Through this morning of trade, corn is currently unchanged and soybeans are up 4 cents. Some heavy rains have moved through the Northern Corn Belt in the last 24 hours and continue into this morning. The bulk of the rain fell from southern MN to central WI where there has been reports of up to 4-6” in some areas. Chances of rain seem to have amped up a bit in the last 24 hours for the region. Rains are expected to return late this weekend and continue throughout the week next week. Some highly anticipated data from the USDA will be released at 11 a.m. and any shocks to the report is expected to cause some aggressive price movements in either way. I would recommend calling today to discuss opportunities to contract grain before and after the report. Below is the USDA June acreage and stock report estimates:
U.S planting of major crops for 2019 harvest (in million acres):
USDA June 28 estimate Average of analyst’s estimates USDA June 11 WASDE
Corn – 86.662 89.8
Soybeans – 84.355 84.6
All wheat – 45.654 45.8
U.S. Quarterly Stocks as of June 1 (in billions of bushels):
USDA June 1 Estimate Average on analyst’s estimates USDA March 1, 2019
Corn – 5.332 8.605
Soybeans – 1.861 2.716
Wheat – 1.100 1.591
Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com
June 27, 2019
Good Morning,
Corn and Soybeans continue to follow this week’s trend of trade with low volume and sideways price movement. Through the overnight, corn went unchanged and soybeans are up 2 cents. Wheat on the other hand traded a bit stronger and is up 7 cents. We are seeing a bit of a surge in the wheat market due to the various crop issues lingering for major global producers. The weather forecasts show chances of scattered thunderstorms in the next couple days with a dry weekend. The weather outlook for the next 10 days shows that temperatures will remain a bit warmer and we could see scattered showers throughout the week next week. Despite some chances of showers, the forecast ultimately shows drier and warmer days ahead. The drier and warmer weather is definitely welcome as we need to collect as many growing degree days as we can with the already shortened planting season. The USDA data is set to be released tomorrow at 11 a.m. giving an update on corn stocks and corn acreage. With this data markets are expected to react accordingly and trade is expected to ramp up by tomorrow afternoon. I would recommend that producers shouldn’t allow their bullish outlooks get in the way of locking in their crop at profitable levels. Curveballs are always possible with USDA reports.
Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com