Good Morning,

Corn and Soybeans are off to a rough start this morning trading 9 and 17 lower respectively.
The Chinese trade delegation will begin talks in Washington this morning as all eyes will be watching for any signals from these talks over the next two days. The stress that this meeting is putting on ahead of a full on Asian tariff is nothing we have seen before. It’s a very minor part of the deal that appears to be hanging up the deal as most parts of the deal have already been worked out. One change that the Chinese were looking for had to do with a tax from 2018. The Chinese have asked to be refunded, and the Trump Admin said that was unacceptable.
The USDA crop report will be out at 11am tomorrow. Very few changes are expected to come inn on the balance sheets. Corn carryout will likely remain above 2 billion bushels. They may adjust exports down, while feed and ethanol will probably cancel each other out. Soybean carryout will be close to 900 million bushels and we may see another reduction in exports as China has bought very little in the last 4 weeks. The wheat carryout will be close to 1 billion bushels which is similar to last month.
Weather has not been a factor in the markets so far this spring and until the trade wars are settled, there is very little chance of weather becoming the market mover. Late planted corn and soybeans which result in lower yields is irrelevant if we don’t see an increase in demand!

Congratulations to those who took advantage of yesterday’s $3.40 cash offer! These sales are looking very good this morning.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The markets were quiet overnight after yesterday’s selloff with corn unchanged and soybeans down 2.
What is being viewed as positive news at the end of yesterday’s trade was comments from the Chinese delegation that said they will travel to the US this week for trade talks despite what Trump tweeted. China’s top trade negotiator Liu He will be in the US for hopefully the final talks ahead of Friday’s threat of increased tariffs. If the trade does not make progress and higher tariffs from the US go into place, future talks will fall apart. President Trump will raise tariffs to 25% Friday and add 325 billion in Chinese goods not currently covered. Virtually all Asian imports will be affected.
Last night’s crop progress report showed corn planting at 23% complete compared to 36% last year and 46% on the five year average. Wisconsin was reported at 7% complete compared to 13% last year and 24% on the five year average.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Oh how a weekend can change the direction of the markets! When we left on Friday all things pointed to higher markets this week, with forecasts for wet weather in the 10-15 day stretch and talks between the US and China making significant progress and potentially getting done this week. Fast forward 48 hours and the weather forecast has much less rain in the forecast and a simple “Tweet” has the deal with China looking like it may not happen. Yesterday President Trump tweeted that 10% tariffs paid by China on $200 billion in goods will rise to 25% on Friday because progress is continuing “Too Slowly”. Chinese delegation was scheduled to resume talks in Washington on Wednesday, but the latest news has some questioning if this will actually take place.
Corn is currently down 8 and soybeans are down 18. Look for traders to keep a microscope on the news out of Washington as the negotiations have now taken precedence over the weather.
As I stated in my comments on Friday, weather markets are very short lived and can change in a heartbeat. The same is true in politics as we all well know. Make sure you are actively selling any small rally in the markets.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The markets are trading both sides of even in corn and up slightly in soybeans. Yesterday was a bad day in the bean markets. The demand destruction from China is crippling this market. The word is that China will lose 40% of its pork production due to the swine flu. They will not need to buy very many beans this year and this year’s marketing season is just about over. Hopefully this demand destruction will be resolved for next year’s crop in the coming weeks. The Chinese trade delegation is coming to Washington next week and a deal is expected to be reached. Rumors are that a signing date will be scheduled with President Trump and President Xi for some time in May. (Fingers crossed)
Funds are still holding record short positions as they are currently short 300,000 corn and 166,000 soybean contracts.
The forecast for the next 10 days remains cooler and wetter with spotty chances for producers to get into the fields. We may need that 10 days of wet weather to get the markets to react as the recent delay has done nothing to spur a rally.
My caution for producers is to make sure you make sales on any rally we see due to weather. Every weather market is VERY SHORT lived regardless of how severe it may seem. I would advise making cash sales in the $3.45-3.50 range for May/June. I would target $3.60-3.70 for new crop sales. I would suggest making sales for next February/March in the $3.75-3.80 range.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Quiet markets overnight as corn was up a half and soybeans were up 1. We saw early support in the market yesterday with a two week forecast showing cooler and wetter weather, but the record short position for traders continued as they sold off and the markets closed unchanged. Last nights corn planting progress came in at 15% complete which is up 9% from last week and the same as last year this time. We are behind the 5 year average of 27%. I believe we will have to get into the second full week of May with major planting delays before the market will begin to question the potential size of this years crop and add any premium. Traders will continue to monitor forecasts for direction.
The US and China are back at the table in Beijing today to continue the never ending trade talks. We don’t expect any resolution this week, but poor economic data coming out of China could spur them to act a little faster.
Traders were short 327,000 contract of corn and 149,000 contracts of soybeans after last nights close. This is down from last Tuesday’s record as traders take some profits heading into month end.

Producers should actively sell any rallies that we see in the markets as the potential weather market rally if seen, will not last long at all! I would advise selling cash corn in the $3.35-3.45 range for spring/summer and $3.50-3.60 range for fall delivery.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com