Corn continued to find support last week and closed higher for the eighth week in a row. Nearby futures are trading at eight-month highs as managed money continues to pour into the markets since late November.  March futures closed 2 higher while May and July futures each gained 4 cents. The funds are long 325,684 corn and 64,921 soybean contracts.

President Trump threatened an additional 10% tariff to China starting February 1st, stating that the fentanyl trade with Mexico and Canada needed to stop.  Trump has already put 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada that would also start Feb 1st. Mexico, Canada and China said they would impose similar tariffs against the US. There is some speculation that the weekly export sales to “unknown” destinations could be China making purchases to appease Trump. China is currently reducing expectations of corn imports as it manages lower corn prices for its producers. Cash prices in China are at 5-year lows so importing more corn would seem to be counterproductive. The US Attaché to China also reports China has stopped auctions of imported corn from its inventories while increasing domestic purchases for its reserve program.

Argentina’s government announced that they would be temporarily cutting taxes on grain exports, with soybeans down from 33% to 26%, soy products down from 31% to 24.5%, and both corn and wheat down from 12% to 9.5%; the country’s farm groups had been asking the government for help on that front due to drought and unfavorable prices. The tax cut is currently scheduled to end at the end of June but could become permanent. This is significant because it makes their crop that much cheaper when competing with US exports.

South American weather remains in the forefront with the wetter Euro and GFS models. Cooler and wetter outlooks are sliding into the southern regions of Argentina and Brazil which are in the most need of the relief. How much damage is permanent is up for debate.  Brazil’s 1st corn crop is less than 10% harvested to date and the 2nd crop, which is four times the size, is just starting its planting season.

Upcoming reports

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 1 and soybeans are up 7 to start the day.

Following a rough day yesterday, corn and soybeans have rebounded overnight and appear to be led by higher veg oil prices. Short covering in front of the weekend is to be expected. The US dollar continues to march higher and South American weather remains generally favorable for crops. Traders remain concerned about what government policies will look like in 2025 and beyond, adding more pressure to the markets.

The Buenos Aires Exchange reported Argentine soybean planting at 20% done this week, up a strong 12% from last week due to better moisture supplies; corn planting hit 39% done with wheat planting at 17% complete. Brazilian rains again fell in the north yesterday and coverage and amounts look strong through most of the country’s crop areas over the next week-plus.

Look for the markets to continue their sideways trend in the coming weeks as there is little fundamental news to give us direction. Expectations for Q1 appear to be lower with sufficient stocks and a party change in the Whitehouse that has traders questioning export business. Time will Tell!

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

WASDE report out at 11am today. This will be the last update we have on the 2024 production until the final report is released in January. Expectations are listed below.

USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2024 US Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2024 US Yield (Bushels per acre)

Expectations are for a slight drop in yield, but I am thinking we may see an increase. Locally and outside of the state I have been hearing a lot of very good numbers. Yes, there were wet spots in field and some “0 bushel” areas, but the good ground was really good. Reports across the Midwest of emergency ground piles are very common. Exports have been good, and domestic demand has been good, but we will need a lot more of that over the next 9 months to move corn prices higher. With the expectation for Trump to put new tariffs in place when he is in office, it will be difficult to keep exports high. Following today’s report we will not have an update on production until the final is released in January.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Happy Halloween!

Corn was lower yesterday and down slightly overnight as seasonal harvest pressure and lasc of fresh news in the export market develops. The markets seem to be spinning their wheels as we end the month.

USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl Torres Small announced on Tuesday that the USDA is investing $239 million through the “Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP) & the biobased market access and development program to increase biofuel infrastructure to scale up biobased technologies. 39 million dollars is granted towards projects aimed at upgrading fuel pumps, dispensers, and storage tanks to support fuels that require a higher blend rate, such as E85 (85% ethanol/15% gasoline). The other 200 million dollars is coming from the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) for a biobased market access and development program. This capital will be used to fund loan guarantees for products that support biobased technologies and increase commercial viability.

Rain has finally fallen in our area. With reports of 2+ inches over the last 12 hours and more chances today, harvest will be on hold for today. Corn harvest nationally came in at 81% completed earlier this week which is up from 65% last week and 68% last year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets were slightly higher overnight with corn up 1 and soybeans up 6.

We have seen significant selloff in the last few days in both commodities with corn down close to 30 cents since the first of October. The funds have drastically changed their position in the last five days. They were short 39,000 contracts last Wednesday and are now short 123,000 contracts as of last night’s close.

The national corn harvest was reported at 47% complete as of Sunday night. This is up from 30% last week, 42% last year and 39% for the five-year average. Favorable weather over the next couple weeks should keep things well ahead of pace for the US farmer.

All of Brazil will get rain at one time or another during the next ten days to two weeks.  Some of the rain that arrived in Argentina came too late for some of the wheat across the northern areas and the southern areas will remain dry over the next week. The second week of the forecast does call for precipitation for southern Argentina, needed to boost summer crop plantings.

I expect space to become an issue across the Midwest in the next two weeks as harvest progresses and farmers fill their on farm storage. We entered harvest with the largest stocks since 2020 and the US farmer entered harvest with the largest inventory on farm in the last 20 years. Add to this equation the record yields and you can see where space becomes an issue. Look for basis levels to start widening out as space becomes a premium.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com