The corn market had another uneventful week as traders wait for news of the government returning to work or a trade deal with China, neither of which are on the immediate radar. Corn ended the week 1 higher in the December contract while March and May finished unchanged. The funds are estimated to be short 82,323 corn and long 31,258 soybean contracts.

President Trump is expected to meet with President Xi this week on the 30th in South Korea at the APEC summit.  I am not expecting anything big out of this meeting, but the fact that they are meeting has to be positive. Trump has stated he plans to focus on the illegal drug trade and Ag trade with Xi. China isn’t interested in corn imports from any origin let alone the US as they have enough local supplies to meet demand. The hope is that a deal may get done for soybeans which will add strength to the corn markets.

There is some optimism that the framework of a trade agreement has already been reached between the U.S. and China. Treasury Secretary Bessent was quoted on Face the Nation as saying he expected China to make “substantial” soybean purchases in the future. When talking with Face the Nation host Margaret Brennan, he was quoted as saying “Margaret, I’m not going to give you the details here, but I can tell you the soybean farmers are going to be extremely happy with this deal for this year and for the coming years.”

The Trump Administration has reopened the Phase 1 Deal investigation to determine whether China has complied with the original agreement. The Deal, which was orphaned under the Biden Administration, may be hard to enforce based on the legal language that was built into it.

I would estimate corn harvest to be 58% complete nationwide compared to my estimate of 45% last week and 65% last year. Harvest in the north is plodding along with reports of wetter corn, but good yields coming from our draw area. Basis has started to strengthen in Kansas, Ohio and central Illinois where the farmer has been reluctant to market his grain. Small movements in basis are encouraging sales with the lack of CBOT movement. I look for basis to remain flat in most areas of the US until we hit December when basis will have to do the work if the CBOT hasn’t shown any life.

Barring any negative news or canceled meeting between leaders, I look for the corn market to make a higher move this week and fill the gap created back in July at $4.3275 in the CZ25 contract. If we manage to fill this gap, $4.50 would be my next target.

Upcoming reports

Corn rebounded from last week’s selloff with no guidance due to the government shutdown and no reports. It appears that traders are trading a smaller US corn yield than the last government report. (186.7 bpa) December corn ended the week 10 cents higher while March and May futures ended the week 8 and 7 cents higher respectively. The funds are estimated to be short 91,323 corn and long 19,258 soybean contracts. The lack of USDA reports also includes the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) which is an independent US federal agency.

Last Wednesday, President Trump indicated that the US and China were embroiled in a trade war, and that the US would be “nowhere” without tariffs. Chinese President Xi indicated that the Chinese population should sense a crisis and carry forward the spirit of the struggle. Further, Xi suggested that the door is open for US trade talks, but China is ready to fight to the end, developing through struggle rather than compromise.

Former US Secretary Vilsack made comments on Thursday that US soybean farmers may never get back the Chinese market share lost in the trade war. China has built a relationship with Brazil that’s unlikely to change and China’s soybean buying will not go back to the US immediately. Brazilian soybeans are currently trading at a $1.20 premium to US soybeans and are still being purchased by China due to the trade war.

Brazilian crop agency Conab estimated the country’s 2025/26 soybean harvest at a record 177.64 MMT, basically unchanged from their September 177.67 MMT estimate; total corn output was pegged at 138.60 MMT, up from 138.28 MMT last month due to a slight increase in planted area. Brazil will continue to increase acreage which is going to put pressure on the US export demand if they have favorable weather conditions.

I would estimate corn harvest to be 45% complete nationwide based on weather. Historically corn harvest is 40% complete this time of year. Basis remains wide as anticipation of space issues continue as we head deeper into harvest. I would anticipate basis to strengthen when we get to the December timeframe.

The corn market sold off on Friday while following soybeans lower on bearish comments from President Trump. Friday’s news resulted in the Funds recording their biggest selloff in several months adding 30,000 contracts to their short position. Despite the large volume of sales, the market only closed 5 cents lower. For the week December corn lost 6 cents while March and May futures lost 7 cents. The funds ended the week short 126,323 corn and short 5,742 soybean contracts.

Friday morning, China formalized their port fee charges on US ships in response to the US charges that go into effect Tuesday. The charges by China mirror that of the US at $56/ton and will increase over time thru 2028. In response to this announcement, President Trump declared that he is considering massive increases in tariffs on Chinese products coming into the US as well as other countermeasures. He also stated that didn’t see a reason to meet with Chinese president Xi at the APEX summit in Korea in a couple weeks. Prior to Friday’s comments, Trump had been assuring the market that he and Xi were going to meet to discuss US soybean trade and other items. He said that he was confident that he would deliver a trade deal for which China would return to importing soybeans. This negative news resulted in soybeans quickly trading 20 cents lower and corn following the weakness. China has yet to book any new crop soybeans from the US and estimates are that their reserves are large enough that they could cover demand for 3-4 months before needing to buy.

With the government still in shutdown mode, there was no October WASDE released last Thursday, and no weekly crop progress report released. Estimates are that 29% of the US crops have been harvested. Until the government is back up and operating, traders will be relying on their internal data and private group estimates to determine what stocks and production look like.

Upcoming reports

Despite a volatile week in the corn markets, they managed to continue their sideways pattern. An early week selloff was followed by a mid-week reversal allowed corn to gain back most of its losses. Following a bearish USDA Stocks report on Tuesday the markets rallied Wednesday on news from President Trump that he was going to help the US producer by rerouting tariff revenues to them and that he would be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 4 weeks. This is much earlier than expected and looks to be supportive the soybean markets. Strength in the soybean markets spilled over into the corn markets, pulling both higher late in the week. December, March and May futures all ended the week 3 cents lower after trading as much as 13 lower early in the week. The funds ended the week short 98,323 corn and long 2,258 soybean contracts.

On Tuesday the USDA released their September 1^st grain stocks report. Corn and wheat stocks came in well above pre-port estimates, giving the markets a bearish tone. The biggest take-away from the report was the 182-million-bushel shortfall in feed residual use which adds to the current 2025-26 carry-out estimates.

USDA September 1 Stocks (billion bushel)

On Wednesday the government shut down which will have an impact on future government reports.

With the Congress continuing to negotiate votes to continue funding the government, trade is operating on innuendo and intuition. Missing some of these reports will not have a big impact, but there are some that could surprise us when they are resumed. US corn export offers remain the most competitive, so it is assumed that sales will continue the merits of economics. No sales will be announced during the closure, and the only export indications we will have will be on Monday for grain already sold earlier in the season and in the process of loading on ships. The US harvest should be proceeding as normal to above normal, but again crop progress won’t be known specifically, as that too is a report published by the USDA.  With three days of shutdown accomplished, the odds of a quick turnaround and a WASDE/Production report being released on October 9th are very low.

Argentina’s corn crop is up to 20% planted, compared to an average of 16%. Modest rains are expected to be over 70% of the country, with the better accumulations in the eastern half. Both Argentina and Brazil are projected to increase acres and production this year.

Corn harvest was reported at 18% complete this past year, which is right in line with the 5-year average but slightly behind last year.

Upcoming reports

As harvest ramps up with favorable weather and export demand for soybeans remains absent, the markets continue to remain rangebound while looking for bullish support. December and March corn ended the week 2 cents lower while May futures closed 3 lower. The funds ended the week short 108,323 corn and 35,742 soybean contracts.

US weather forecasts remain very good, which should aid harvest progress. Traders are expecting NASS to show strong numbers in Monday afternoons harvest progress report. Reports out of the field continue to vary with no direction other than yields don’t appear to be as good as we expected in August. A dry August coupled with disease pressure appears to have taken the top off of the crop. I am sticking to my 184 bushel per acre estimate but may adjust as I see more data in the coming weeks.

On Tuesday the USDA will release their September 1^st grain stocks report. Estimates are shown below. I do not expect the market to react much to this report as the focus remains on current harvest conditions.

USDA September 1 Stocks (billion bushel)

Late last week, US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins spoke on the current state for the farm economy in the US. In her speech she acknowledged that the tariffs have negatively impacted producers and that this administration is going to support American Ag. On Thursday President Trump backed this up by saying “We’re going to take some of that tariff money and give it to our farmers.” US farm production imputs are significantly higher than they were four years ago and commodity prices are much lower, putting pressure on farmers’ bottom lines. Between 2020 and 2025, seed expenses increased 18%, fuel and oil increased 32%, fertilizer increased 37% and interest expenses increased 73%.

Corn harvest was reported at 11% complete this past year, which is right in line with the 5-year average but slightly behind last year.

Upcoming reports