Old crop corn found some support late in the week following favorable trade negotiations with China a bullish USDA report and a stronger soybean market while new crop prices continued lower. July corn ended the week 2 cents higher while September and December futures were 5 and 6 cents lower for the week. The funds went home short 167,143 corn contracts and long 52,071 soybean contracts.

Early last week there was a meeting between US and Chinese officials that appeared to be positive. A framework was put into place that will further trade and discussion between the two countries. The potential agreement that was discussed and now in the hands of President Trump and Chinese President Xi for decision had nothing to do with grain or Ag products in general. The biggest part of the agreement is that rare earth metals would be provided to the US by China and Chinese students would be able to attend US colleges. The US would collect 55% tariffs on Chinese goods while China would collect 10% tariffs on US goods. Despite no reference to Ag products, the discussions were positive and show potential to move forward.

On Thursday the USDA released their June WASDE which had very few changes from the May report. The corn 2025/26 balance sheet called for lower beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks were lowered by 50 million bushels based on an increase in old crop exports. No changes were made to production or new crop use categories. Ending stocks were lowered to 1.750 billion bushels. This was lower than the average pre-report estimate of 1.792 billion bushels but within the range of estimates. Global corn production increased while foreign ending stocks decreased.

USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

Weekly crop conditions showed 71% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent category which is just below the five-year average and 3% behind last year.

Despite a 2024/25 ending stocks number that is now below 9% stocks to use, the trade appears content with the perception that the 2025/26 US crop is going to refill the pipeline. The USDA’s June 30^th report will give us a lot more information and will most likely result in more market movement than this past week’s report. The June 30^th report will update planted acres as well as yield projections for the 2025 crop.  Will we break the recent trend and return to seasonal patterns or is this year the anomaly is TBD.

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The markets are were mixed this past week as spreads and demand for corn in the east worked on the worked new crop higher while weather remained friendly for those in the west. July futures ended the week a penny lower while September and December futures both closed 10 cents higher. The funds ended the week short 117,979 corn contracts and long 49,604 soybean contracts.

It appears as though the grain markets have found support in the low $4.30 range (CN25) and are content with this as a low for now. We tested this level three times last week before closing about 10 cents off that price. Until we see or know more about weather over the next 30 days and if the rains will continue, this support may hold. The Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows perfect weather for crop development with normal temps and plenty of rain.  Other forecasts show a pattern change starting around June 11th to warmer and drier.  It also looks like we’ll see some extreme weather when the heat starts to come in that could create pop up storms that bring rain.  I think we will need to see a dome form in these weather models before the markets can move higher.

Planting progress came in at 93% complete this past week, which was a small climb from the previous week’s 87% and right in line with the five-year average. The biggest delays are still in the east. With the crop insurance deadline past and coverage dropping daily, some are questioning if the final acres will get planted or go to prevent plant. I won’t bore you with the calculations on what revenue may be and what the insurance coverage levels may be in any given area, but based on my calculations, producers are most likely going to try to plant at least for another week or so. It is currently estimated that 1.9 million acres of corn are unplanted across the US and may end up as prevent plant. This is below last year’s 2.7 million acres and the 15-year average of 2.5 million acres.

Weekly crop conditions showed 69% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent category which is 3% below the five-year average and 6% behind last year. On Thursday the USDA will give us their June production numbers which will be an update on demand and ending stocks at the end of May. I would not be surprised to see exports and ethanol demand increase and feed demand decrease in this report.

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Technical price action helped the corn market bounce higher last week. July and September closed 16 cents higher while December futures closed 15 cents higher last week.  The funds ended the week short 115,483 corn contracts and long 46,330 soybean contracts.

The US Good/Excellent ratings will be released Tuesday afternoon due to the holiday week, and they are expected to be better than average, like the planting pace this year. Though initial Good/Excellent ratings have zero correlation to final yields, a good rating only has to be maintained instead of rescued by rains. The USDA’s old yield models place considerable weight on timely planting, which the US has exceeded this year. The next hurdle will be rain in June, followed by July temperatures and moisture.

The weather forecast has heavy rains for the South that extends out in the models for the next 14 days. The Midwest appears to warm up a bit with more chances for rain in the 7–10-day timeframe. While this forecast is on the bearish side but could quickly become an issue if it stays wet.

Last week’s planting progress made another push towards completion with 78% of the crop reported in the ground as of 5/18/25. This is ahead of last year by 11% and the 5-year average by 5%. The Eastern corn belt remains behind average but should have made up some ground last week and early this week.

Coming off a holiday weekend and on the brink of a new month we could see some price action to the higher side this week. Historically June is a bullish month for the grain markets. In the last 20 years, December corn futures have posted their yearly highs in the month of June. The previous contract high for December futures (CZ25) was in February when we reached $4.7975. Once we hit July, there is a 75% chance that December futures will make new contract lows before expiration. Will history repeat itself and give the producer one last chance to market corn at profitable levels or will this year’s large acreage keep history from repeating itself is TBD.

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The corn market was under pressure last week with near perfect planting conditions across the country over the last 7 days and improving South American crop conditions. July corn closed 19 cents lower while September and December futures lost 11 and 8 cents respectively. The funds have completely exited their long position in corn and are now short 10,981 contracts. They are currently long 31,728 soybean contracts.

This weekend the United States and China reached a preliminary trade agreement following two days of intensive negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer led the American delegation, while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng represented China. The talks aimed to address the escalating trade war that had seen the U.S. impose tariffs up to 145% on Chinese imports and China retaliate with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. Specific details of the agreement are set to be released on Monday. The deal focuses on reducing the significant U.S. trade deficit with China, which stands at approximately $295 billion. The agreement also seeks to resolve issues related to intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, and forced technology transfers—concerns that have long strained U.S.-China trade relations. This development is seen as a significant step toward de-escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies

Last week’s crop progress showed US corn planting 40% complete compared to 24% the previous week and 39% on average. With favorable weather over the last 7 days, we should see these numbers significantly higher in this afternoons report.

On Monday at 11AM the USDA will release its monthly WASDE report which will give us a look at the 2024/25 and the 2025/26 carryout estimates. Expectations are for lower stocks in 2024/25 due to the strong export pace we have seen. 2025/26 ending stocks are estimated to be over 2 billion bushels due to the projected size of this year’s crops in the US and South America. These numbers are estimates based on potential acres, yields and demand. Keep in mind that a year ago we were well over 2 billion bushels with expectations and are now sub 1.5 billion.

USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels

USDA 2024/25 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

Upcoming reports