January 16, 2023
Good morning,
There will be no markets today as the trade observes Martin Luther King day.
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
January 13, 2023
Good morning,
The USDA surprised everyone by reducing harvested acres by 1.6 million acres. This is the largest November to January acreage reduction on record. While harvested acres were lowered, the USDA did increase yield by 1 bushel per acre(bpa) to 173.3 bpa. Unfortunately, this yield increase was not enough to offset the acreage decline and we saw production fall by 200 million bushels.
As expected, we saw a reduction in demand that mostly fell in the export category. US exports were reduced by 150 million bushels while Feed and Industrial use were reduced by 35 million bushels.
The net result of the reduced production and decline in demand was an ending stocks number that was decreased by 15 million bushels. This is currently 8.9% stocks to use ratio which is considered bullish the markets.
The production numbers are final, and this is what we will be using on balance sheets for the balance of 2023. We could see additional changes on the demand side of the equation. There are two demand categories that I feel could be adjusted in the coming months. 1. Ethanol production is running 5% behind last years pace and the USDA failed to make any adjustments to corn use for Ethanol. I believe this should be 20-25 million bushel lower. 2. Following the adjustments in exports, we are still behind the USDA’s projected pace. If this trend doesn’t change, we could see another 150–200-million-bushel adjustment to exports.
January 12th WASDE
| January 12th, 2023 | December 12th, 2022 | Change | |
| Planted Acres | 88.6 | 88.6 | 0 |
| Harvested Acres | 79.2 | 80.8 | -1.6 |
| Yield | 173.3 | 172.3 | 1 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,377 | 1,377 | 0 |
| Production | 13,730 | 13,930 | -200 |
| Imports | 50 | 50 | 0 |
| Total Supply | 15,157 | 15,357 | -200 |
| Feed Demand | 5,275 | 5,300 | -25 |
| FSI Demand | 6,715 | 6,725 | -10 |
| Total Domestic Demand | 11,990 | 12,025 | -35 |
| Exports | 1,925 | 2,075 | -150 |
| Total Use | 13,915 | 14,100 | -185 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,242 | 1,257 | -15 |
| Stocks/Use Ratio | 8.9% | 8.9% | 0 |
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
January 5, 2023
Good morning,
The new year sell off continues today as corn is down 5, soybeans are down 12 and wheat is down 9. We have lost 30 cents in corn over the last 3 days, 52 cents in soybeans and 53 cents in wheat.
Covid has run rampant in China. A worry about a Global slow down and supply chain issues are dragging prices lower for a host of commodities. Corn, beans, and wheat have followed this program of no buying only selling.
The forecast for South America looks much wetter in the long-range forecast. The hot air mass that moves in today will hold until the beginning of next week before backing off. When this moves out, it will be the beginning of a significant change in weather for them. If realized, we could see another move lower in the bean market which will spill over into corn.
The biggest concern to traders right now is Covid in China and the concern over global demand. The US is already significantly behind on corn sales and any additional bearish news would not be good for the unpriced 2022 crop that producers are holding in their bins.
Current cash values in the $6.30 – $6.50 range and new crop corn in the $5.50 – $5.75 range are not bad levels to be selling and should be strongly considered with a lot of unknowns on the demand side.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 15, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are unchanged to lower this morning with corn up 1 and soybeans down 8.
Weekly export sales came in at 37.8 million bushels which was a move in the right direction. Soybeans came in at 108.2 million bushels which was the highest since early November. We will need to average 45-50 million bushels over the next few weeks for me to become bullish US exports heading forward. If we fail to reach these levels, I think we may see another 200-300 million bushels added to US carryout numbers.
Brazil will see normal to above normal rains over the next 10 days. Argentina stays dry for the next 10 days with slight chances past that. This forecast looks the same as yesterday with a move to much wetter conditions in Argentina in the extended forecast. Temps have moved to more normal as the heat is expected to draw back. A wet forecast for Argentina is putting some pressure on beans.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 9, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are mixed to start the day with corn up 4, soybeans unchanged and wheat down 4.
At 11:00am today the USDA will release their December WASDE report. Estimates for today’s report are listed below. Historically this is a quiet report for the markets as very few if any changes are made. There will be no adjustments to the production side of the equation, just demand updates. Most are looking for a slight reduction in export demand with the USDA giving a bigger more accurate update in January.
2022/23 US Carryout (billion bushels)
| December 9th | November | Average Est. | |
| Corn | 1.257 | 1.182 | 1.237 |
| Soybeans | .220 | .220 | .238 |
| Wheat | .571 | .571 | .576 |
2022/23 World Carryout (million tonnes)
| December 9th | November | Average Est. | |
| Corn | 298.40 | 300.76 | 300.86 |
| Soybeans | 102.71 | 102.17 | 102.23 |
| Wheat | 267.33 | 267.82 | 267.42 |
Look for the markets to remain flat to slightly lower following todays report, especially if we get a reduction in export numbers. I would advise producers to be locking in prices and getting firm offers in place for the bushels you have stored in bins.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
