October 31, 2022
Good morning,
Higher markets to open the week with corn up 14 and soybeans up 7.
Wheat is up 47 of the news of the closing of the export corridor in the Ukraine. In a move that is not surprising, Putin announced on Saturday that the safe exit of grain from the Ukraine will end. This has put the markets up strongly in wheat but is not having the same effect as then the war broke out with limit moves. Traders are aware that some grain can be moved via rail, and you also have to see if new business is booked in the US. Prices out of the US are already high, with the sky-high freight rate and strong US dollar.
I don’t expect todays rally to be sustained as this will continue to be an ongoing event until other countries get more involved. Take advantage of the rallies to get additional fall and spring sales on.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 28, 2022
Good morning,
Markets starting the day off weaker with corn down 4 and soybeans down 7.
Concerns over another rate hike in November are moving into the markets and has grains, bonds, metals and energy lower to start the day. Strength of the US dollar along with Mississippi River issues are weighing heavily on the US export program.
Mexico will reportedly proceed with the GMO corn ban by 2024, according to their Deputy Ag Minister; they are looking to cut U.S. corn imports in half and increase non-GMO shipments from other countries.
There has been no traction in the markets as prices have moved sideways for the better part of the month. I don’t see the market breaking out to the upside with the high dollar, poor exports and better weather in South America.
I would advise producers to make sales on any grain that you don’t have space for this fall and look to make some early winter sales on any small rally. Stocks are going to continue to grow with limited demand.
Have a Safe weekend!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 24, 2022
Good morning,
Weaker markets overnight with corn down 5 and soybeans down 13.
Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of October 1 at 11.449 million head, or 99.1% of last year, basically right on the average trade estimate; September placements came in at 96.2%, slightly below the average 96.4% trade guess, with September marketing’s at 104.0% of LY, in line with the average 104.0% expectation.
The forecast in Brazil and Argentina is wet this morning and will stay that way for the next 10 days. After that the long rang forecast moves back to drier. There is no evidence of any heat in the forecast or any dome. Weather in Brazil is ideal, and Argentina is improving.
Harvest is rolling on and today corn should pass the 50% mark. News is limited this Monday, which mostly leans negative. Support in the CZ22 has held in the 6.80’s over the past week we’ll see if that is the case today. At some point I think we will see a larger correction in corn as the funds are holding a large, long position. Cash basis is tight for corn and beans across the country as farmers have been slow sellers. I’m not sure this is the best idea as I think you should be a willing seller as the demand picture doesn’t look good for 2023.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 17, 2022
Good morning,
Grain markets opened lower this morning with corn down 6 and soybeans down 2.
Harvest pressure and a strong US dollar are keeping things steady to lower following last weeks USDA report. While this years US crop may not be as big as many were hoping for, the US export business continues to lag.
The weather in Brazil and Argentina is wet in Brazil and turning that way in Argentina. US corn is 1 dollar higher than Brazilian making it the most overpriced corn in the World. Supplies are short in the US, but the harvest is coming in and yields have been highly variable. It looks like we are caught in a range for the foreseeable futures with the Funds already long a lot of corn.
Ukrainian President Zelensky yesterday said exports following the grain export agreement have totaled around 8 MMT, aboard 300 ships. Exports over the first 17 days of October were 2.12 MMT, down only slightly from 2.17 MMT last year. Cumulative exports since July 1 stand at 10.8 MMT, versus 16.5 MMT last year, including 3.99 MMT of wheat and 5.88 MMT corn.
Russia has intensified military assault over the weekend releasing drones. The efforts were aimed at food storage facilities. This has the wheat market up this morning.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
October 11, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are relatively quiet to start the day with corn down 5 and soybeans up 3. Traders will most likely wait for Wednesday’s report before adding or reducing their positions.
Estimates for Wednesday’s report or listed below.
US Production (Billion Bushels/bushels per acre)
| Average Estimate | USDA September | USDA 2021 | |
| Corn Production | 13.891 | 13.944 | 15.115 |
| Corn Yield | 171.9 | 172.5 | 177.0 |
| Harvested Acres | 80.8 | 80.8 | 85.4 |
US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| Average Estimate | USDA September | |
| Corn | 1.127 | 1.219 |
| Soybeans | .240 | .200 |
| Wheat | .563 | .610 |
A majority of nearly 12,000 railroad maintenance workers yesterday voted to reject a labor plan suggested by President Biden; there are a dozen unions in total that will be voting on the deal or risk going on strike. A new bargaining period has begun and will end November 19th. Barge freight on the Illinois and Mississippi have soared on the low water levels. Barge rates were in the 500% of tariff rate but are down between 2000 and 2500. It’s a good time for the railroads to use leverage.
I would have 7 dollar sell orders in as I said last week and also some at 7.20-7.25 for the Crop Report tomorrow. I think it’s another good rally, which can be built on again tomorrow with bullish input by the USDA.
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
