July 28, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are off to a stronger start today with corn up 11, soybeans up 27 and wheat up 16.
Prices are higher off threatening weather and the confirmation of the Fed rate increase of .75. The Central Bank said they will study data and see how the economy looks before additional increases are added to borrowing rate in the future. The Fed is looking for a soft landing and wants to avoid recession. Fighting inflation with interest increases to avoid a recession is an almost impossible scenario for the US Government to work out of. If the Govt can’t cut back spending, it’s all for nothing. Walmart put a major warning out that stores are selling a lot less products and AT&T said customers have quit paying phone bills. Housing sales are down sharply as is new construction. There are some major problems going on here and energy prices have not backed off. The US government has been selling out the strategic reserve at and unprecedented rate with little available.
The 10-day forecast has rain in the south and not much in the Central US. Some rain has been placed up in Minnesota and Wisconsin, which makes sense as the ridge develops, and rain is pushed North. The heat starts to build in Texas and move North and East this weekend. This looks to be a prolonged hot dry period over most of the Central US. Crops will struggle as temps will reach 100 degrees again. These weather patterns continue to change and so far, have not been as severe as forecasted. If this continues, we may see the markets a little higher than current levels, but no significant climbs are expected. We got thru July which is the month that weather is most critical. Rains now will just increase the crop size in the upper Midwest.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 19, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are down hard to start the day with corn down 20 and soybeans down 23.
Corn ratings remained steady last night with 64% of the crop rated good to excellent. This is unchanged from last week and 1% below the five year average. The current ratings are most similar to 2017 and 2021 in comparison. Both of these years suffered further declines in the coming weeks, but both still stand as the two highest yielding national crops on record.
The Midwest remains dry this week but chances will pick up starting Saturday in the northern areas for rain. Extended maps are more variable with forecasters seeing decent rain chances in the north for the 6-10 day range. Those chances move into the southeast areas in the 11-15 day range. Look for extreme heat for the heart of the corn belt, with more variability in temperatures moving forward.
Weather will continue to move this market higher and lower as we move thru the growing season. Rains are needed with the excessive heat we will see in the coming days, but overall the crop is in line to hit the USDA’s 177 bpa level if not exceed it.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 15, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are mixed this morning as we head into the weekend. Corn is currently up 4 while soybeans are down 2.
This past week has been a wild ride of ups and downs as old crop corn had a 80 cent trading range. Weekend rains and continuous changes in weather forecasts kept the markets lively. Tuesdays USDA report gave the corn market more bearish news as stocks climbed more than expected. This was followed up with more weather trading.
It is interesting to note that while Tuesdays Stocks report was bearish the markets, if you look at recent years, we are on the low side. The projected 1.4 billion bushel carryout would be the lowest since 2012/13.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 13, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are trying to bounce after yesterday’s selloff as corn is up 12 and soybeans are up 11 to start the day.
Yesterday’s WASDE increased corn and soybean carryout for the 2021/22 crop and corn for the 2022/23 crop as expected. Most traders expected these types of numbers with the increase in acreage we saw in last months report.
2021/22 US Ending Stocks(million bu)
| USDA July 12 | Ave. Est. | USDA June | |
| Corn | 1.510 | 1.486 | 1.485 |
| Soybeans | 215 | 210 | 205 |
2022/23 US Ending Stocks (million bu)
| USDA July 12 | Ave. Est. | USDA June | |
| Corn | 1.470 | 1.428 | 1.400 |
| Soybeans | 230 | 210 | 280 |
Ukraine said on Wednesday that a deal to resume grain exports blocked by Russia appeared very close as four-way talks prepared to resume, raising hopes of an end to a standoff that has exposed millions to the risk of starvation.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Spanish newspaper El Pais ahead of the talks in Istanbul between Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish and U.N. officials that Kyiv believed it was now very close to striking a deal for exports to resume.
“We are two steps away from a deal with Russia. We are in the final phase and now everything depends on Russia,” it quoted him as saying. Other participants in the negotiations were more cautious, saying much remained to be agreed. Ukraine expects monthly grain exports to rise by 500,000 tonnes as a result, Deputy Infrastructure Minister Yuriy Vaskov said. Ukraine is also negotiating with Romania and the European Commission about increasing shipments through the Sulina canal, he said. (Reuters)
The market is about halfway trading weather but is mostly trading the high dollar and the Fed’s crusade to lower inflation. The US Labor Department is expected to release an inflation figure of 8.6-8.8% today. The bank lending rate is supposed to be increased by .75% later this month. The Fed probably feels like they are getting what they want with the drop in energy prices. The high dollar allows the US to buy world products cheaper but will go to expense of exports.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
July 6, 2022
Good morning,
Markets are trying to hold on and stop the recent selloff with corn up 1 and soybeans up 8.
Favorable weather over the weekend and rains continuing this week along with temperatures that are not as hot as they had forecasted last week is weighing on the markets. Add in the recession market tone and you can see why the funds are liquidating their long positions in the grain markets. After yesterday close, the funds were reported long 150,000 corn and 80,000 soybeans.
National corn condition ratings fell three more points this week to 64% good/ excellent, now down from 65% last year and the 67% five-year average; corn silking went from 4% to 7%, down from 9% LY and the 11% 5YA.
Mato Grosso’s ag institute IMEA is reporting the states corn crop at a record 39.2 MMT in 2021/22, with 55% harvested as of July 1. This is putting pressure on US grains for export with more available at a cheaper price.
I look for the new crop markets to stabilize near the current levels as we are now back to crop insurance levels. Old crop may continue to have pressure as we move forward.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
