Daily Insights

July 1, 2022

Good morning,

 

The selloff continues this morning with corn down 15 and soybeans down 38 to start the day.

 

Yesterday’s report was pretty much in line with the average trade guesses except for soybean acres.

USDA Quarterly Stocks (Billion Bushel)

June 2022 Average Estimate June 2021 March 2022
Corn 4.346 4.343 4.111 7.850
Soybeans .971 .965 .769 1.931
Wheat .660 .655 .845 1.025

 

USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)

June 2022 Average Estimate March 2022 2021 Final
Corn 89.921 89.961 89.49 93.357
Soybeans 88.325 90.466 90.955 87.195
Wheat 47.092 47.017 47.351 46.703

 

The Stocks came in about as on the nose as they possibly could.  Exports have been limited while feed, ethanol and crush have been strong.  This was about the closest to the numbers for a June report that I can remember.  Unfortunately, this did not keep the market from totally liquidating their positions.  The funds are net long just over 200k contracts after yesterday’s selloff. The last time they were this low was October 13, 2021. The last time they were long less than 200k contracts was September 21, 2021. I look for us to break that 200 mark easily today.

 

The weather forecast is a little bearish and think there were a lot of bets still in the market for the report.  Sometimes these reports are trend changers and others they are more of a one-off event.  We won’t know that until July 5th when traders return from their holiday weekend and shift their focus to weather. Unfortunately, the highs appear to be in for the year and anyone sitting on old crop corn is going to have to be content selling $7 corn instead of $8. (how strange does that sound “settle for $7 corn”)

 

Have a safe weekend!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

 

June 30, 2022

Good morning,

 

Markets are down sharply this am ahead of the USDA report. Corn is down 15 while soybeans are down 12 and wheat down 9.

June report traditional is one of the most volatile reports and we expect the history will repeat itself today as well. Big range of trade guesses for acres and stocks are an indication of this.


USDA Quarterly Stocks (Billion Bushel)

June 2022 Average Estimate June 2021 March 2022
Corn 4.346 4.343 4.111 7.850
Soybeans .971 .965 .769 1.931
Wheat .660 .655 .845 1.025

 

USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)

June 2022 Average Estimate March 2022 2021 Final
Corn 89.921 89.961 89.49 93.357
Soybeans 88.325 90.466 90.955 87.195
Wheat 47.092 47.017 47.351 46.703

 

Forecasts are calling for heat over the next two weeks, but there is rain coverage in most of the central US weather forecast is warmer after July 4th, with a high-pressure Ridge over west and plains.

While basis levels have firmed across the Midwest, they have not offset the recent selloff in the CBOT, indicating that producers and commercials have been sellers of corn over the last couple weeks. Following today’s report, look for trade to focus on weather as we head into the mid-summer months.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

June 28, 2022

Good morning,

 

Corn markets were stronger overnight with corn up 9 and soybeans up 17.

Monday’s crop progress showed US corn at 67% G/E which is down 3% from the previous week and right in line with the 5-year average. Wisconsin was 78% G/E which is down 4%, but 5% above the five-year average and 3% better than last year.

 

The Funds continued their liquidation yesterday and appear to be set for Thursday s report. Estimates for Thursday are listed below. The markets have some technical support at current levels and should remain neutral until the report. Temperatures across the corn belt remain warm, but chances for precipitation are good heading into next week. Historically a crop that is off to a good start and favorable weather forecasts heading into the fourth of July weekend result in lower markets following the holiday weekend. I would suggest getting some new crop sales on the books ahead of the weekend if you are less than 40% sold.

 

USDA Quarterly Stocks (Billion Bushel)

June 2022 Average Estimate June 2021 March 2022
Corn ? 4.343 4.111 7.850
Soybeans ? .965 .769 1.931
Wheat ? .655 .845 1.025

 

USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)

June 2022 Average Estimate March 2022 2021 Final
Corn ? 89.961 89.49 93.357
Soybeans ? 90.466 90.955 87.195
Wheat ? 47.017 47.351 46.703

 

 

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

June 27, 2022

Good morning,

 

Corn markets are weaker this morning following a weekend of decent rains across the Midwest. Corn is currently trading 18 lower. Soybeans are currently 8 higher.

 

Good rains were seen across much of IL and IA over the weekend with additional rains and no persistent heat in the forecast at this time. Corn and soybean crop conditions are expected to decline slightly this afternoon but could stabilize this week given the recent rains. The USDA’s Grain stocks, and acreage reports will be out on Thursday and estimates are listed below.

 

USDA Quarterly Stocks (Billion Bushel)

June 2022 Average Estimate June 2021 March 2022
Corn ? 4.343 4.111 7.850
Soybeans ? .965 .769 1.931
Wheat ? .655 .845 1.025

 

USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)

June 2022 Average Estimate March 2022 2021 Final
Corn ? 89.961 89.49 93.357
Soybeans ? 90.466 90.955 87.195
Wheat ? 47.017 47.351 46.703

 

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

 

June 24, 2022

Good morning,

Markets are higher this morning with July corn up 2 and December corn up 11. Soybeans and wheat are both 9 higher this morning.

Germany’s foreign minister today joined the crowd in calling for active solutions to getting grain out of Ukraine and combatting world hunger, with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken laying blame on Russian blockades as well— neither took any further immediate action. Romania continues to export Ukrainian grain but is calling for E.U. support and investment, as their main neighboring port of Constanta is having trouble handling increase volumes.  Odessa looks to be one of the main targets by Putin and an increase in bombing that port is expected.  They are not going to let grain leave the Ukraine unless they sell it.

Private analysts APK-Inform raised their 2022 Ukraine grain production estimate from 48.3 to 52.4 MMT, with wheat up from 17.1 to 18.2 MMT and corn up from 25.2 to 27.7 MMT. 2022/23 Ukraine grain exports went from 39.4 to 40.6 MMT, including 13.2 MMT of wheat and 25.7 MMT of corn.

The funds have spent the week exiting their long July positions as we approach first notice day. While weather forecasts have improved for the long term, I believe the fund movement has been the biggest market mover this week. Next weeks weather forecasts will be critical to the markets. If the ridge forms and longer term forecasts call for hot and dry, we will rally heading into the 4th weekend. If not, we will probably have printed the highs for old and new crop corn for the year.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com