Good morning,

Markets are higher to start the day with corn up 5 and soybeans up 15.

The USDA will release their April WASDE at 11am today. Estimates are listed below.

USDA Ending Stocks (million bu)

For Friday’s USDA Report the trade is looking for reduced stocks in US carryout for both corn and beans.  Export sales are strong and with the Ukraine and Russia out of the market, most think that more will flow to the US.  Switches from China out of the Ukraine could amount to an increase in US purchases at a time when there would usually be almost none as South America takes over Chinese business.

European Union nations have frozen some 29.5 billion euros ($32.1 billion) in assets linked to Russian and Belarusian individuals and entities since the bloc adopted its first sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The frozen assets include boats, helicopters, real estate and artwork valued at almost 6.7 billion euros. Additionally, the EU has blocked approximately 196 billion euros worth of transactions, it said.

Japan will ban imports of Russian coal, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, adding to pressure on Moscow after the EU announced its own halt to the fuel.

The coal plan signals a policy reversal for Japan, which had previously drawn a line at cutting energy ties to Russia because of its heavy dependence on fuel imports. Russian coal imports make up about 13% of Japan’s power-generating supply and are also used in steel-making and the cement industry.

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are mixed to start the day with corn down 4 and soybeans up 20.

Ukraine renewed a call on Thursday for financial sanctions crippling enough to force Moscow to end the war and its officials rushed to evacuate civilians from cities and towns in the east and south pounded by Russian artillery and missiles.  The democratic world must stop buying Russian oil and cut off Russian banks from the international finance system, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, adding that economic concerns should not come above punishment for civilian killings that the West condemns as war crimes.

Tomorrows USDA Report has traders looking for reduced stocks in US carryout for both corn and beans.  Export sales are strong and with the Ukraine and Russia out of the market, most think that more will flow to the US.  Switches from China out of the Ukraine could amount to an increase in US purchases at a time when there would usually be almost none as South America takes over Chinese business.

South American crops are expected to shrink a little as well.  The USDA probably won’t revise the crop size very much lower, and we did have late season rain move into Argentina and Southern Brazil.  How much help it did, is anyone’s guess?
December corn has popped through 7 dollars on the CBOT this week and stopped.  The stochastics show overbought conditions and a divergence into the high says traders should be selling off.  The crop report could produce a higher high, which would make sales even more likely tomorrow.  If you want to sell any corn, today and tomorrow would be good days to sell some 7-dollar corn. Old crop futures have been trading around 7.50 for months, so that’s probably the most upside you would see against new crop futures.  I just don’t know how much higher prices really need to go, if at all.  Remember how hard it was to get to these prices and what it took to get here. Selling off from these levels is going to be a lot easier.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 10 and soybeans are up 14 to start the week.

The top stories from the weekend are all about the Russian/Ukraine war.  Russia maintained gas flows through key pipeline routes into Europe on Monday, despite uncertainty over payment terms and as European leaders called for more sanctions against Moscow after war crimes allegations in Ukraine.
Global outrage spread on Monday at civilian killings in north Ukraine, including evidence of bound bodies shot at close range and a mass grave found in areas retaken from Russian troops, as fighting raged on in the country’s south and east.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday that the West would impose a new package of sanctions on Russia over the killing of civilians in Bucha and other Ukrainian cities, but he said that was not enough of a punishment.

The overnight markets were up due to the shelling and attack of the primary grain port of Odessa.  This port is the most important one in the Ukraine and handles most of their export grain.  To cripple this port will set rebuilding in Ukraine back a long time.  A capture of this port would be devastating.
Ukraine’s new ag minister raised his estimated total grain (corn, cereals, sugar beet, sunflower, etc.) planted area expectations to 33.1 million acres vs. the previous ag ministers estimate of 17.3 million acres. This compares to 41.8 million acres last year. No breakdown by commodity or reasoning for this higher acreage was provided.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets were quiet overnight after yesterday’s action following the USDA report. Corn was down 2 in old crop and up 2 in new crop overnight.

USDA 2022 Planting Intentions (million acres)

USDA March 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)

Yesterday’s USDA Plantings report was clearly bullish for the corn market and bearish for soybeans, while being neutral for wheat. The quarterly Grain Stocks report, in a pleasant development was mostly a non-event for corn, wheat and soybeans as no major surprises were seen. USDA estimated 2022/23 U.S. corn planted area at 89.490 million acres, down nearly 3.9 million acres from last year’s 93.357 million, 2.5 million acres less than average market expectations heading into the report of 92.0 million and would be the lowest in four years – certainly a difficult acceptance with corn prices at decade-high levels and insurance guarantees near record high for the coming year’s crop.

We could see deviations in final acreage numbers from March estimates as has been the case in recent history. Most of yesterday’s survey numbers were taken prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine which have resulted in a new crop rally that has certainly bought acres. In the last 10 years we have added acres 8 times from the March to June planting reports.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Softer markets to open the week with corn down 10 and soybeans down 20.

Ukraine and Russia were preparing on Monday for the first face-to-face peace talks in more than two weeks, with Kyiv insisting it would make no concessions on Ukraine’s territorial integrity as battlefield momentum has shifted in its favor.  Ukrainian officials have repeatedly suggested in recent weeks that they believe Russia could now be more willing to compromise, as any hope Moscow may have held of imposing a new government on Kyiv slipped away in the face of stiff Ukrainian resistance and heavy Russian losses.

China’s financial hub of Shanghai launched a two-stage lockdown of its 26 million residents on Monday, closing bridges and tunnels, and restricting highway traffic in a scramble to contain surging COVID-19 cases.  Though still low by global standards, Shanghai recorded a record 3,450 asymptomatic COVID cases on Sunday, accounting for nearly 70% of the nationwide total, along with 50 symptomatic cases.

Private analyst expect Thursday’s Prospective Plantings report to show corn plantings at 92.001 million acres this season. That would be more than a million acres down from 2021 plantings of 93.357 million acres, if realized. Individual trade guesses ranged between 93.500 million and 89.700 million acres.  Analysts expect USDA to show 2022 soybean plantings at 88.727 million acres. That would be well above 2021 plantings of 87.195 million acres, if realized. Trade estimates showed a fairly broad spread, meantime, with guesses ranging from 86.000 million acres all the way up to 92.208 million acres.  All-wheat plantings at 47.771 million acres. That would be more than a million acres above last season’s tally of 46.703 million acres, if realized. The total is comprised of an estimated 34.382 million acres of winter wheat, plus another 11.801 million acres of spring wheat.

Producers should talk to their buyers and get sales locked in and firm offers in place for old and new crop corn ahead of Thursdays report. Limit higher and lower moves is not uncommon on this report especially given the other market movers we are dealing with this year.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com