Good morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn up 4 and soybeans down 23.

Extended rainfall and the potential for US producers to hit the USDA’s bean acreage estimates are working the markets this morning. It also looks like some of the break in the markets today is being led by crude oil. Traders are eying increased interest rates and the slowdown in China due to covid as reasons we may see decreased demand.

The 10-day forecast for US weather is very wet, which is not what models were showing last week going home.  The Central US will see heavy coverage from 1-5 inches in the next week. Several storm systems move around the US in the 15-day forecast.  This is not one event, but many.

Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of April 1 at 12.105 million head, or 101.7% of last year—that was well ahead of the average 100.4% trade estimate. March placements came in at 99.6% of LY, also well ahead of the 92.2% guess, with March marketing’s much closer to matching trade expectations at 98.0%, versus the 98.2% guess.

Today’s finish in the markets should set the tone for the week. Will the wet forecast and increased cattle numbers support the market or will crude oil and historically high prices push for more selloff.

I traveled to Louisville over the weekend and was surprised by the lack of field work that was being done. Aside from central IL (Champaign) area, It looked to me like fields were fit and there should have been a lot more activity. I saw tillage equipment and planters rolling on the trip, but not the numbers I would have expected.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are mixed to open the day with corn down 4, soybeans up 4 and wheat down 24.

It looks like the markets in energies, metals and most commodities are awaiting the outcome of developments in the Ukraine war. A Russian ultimatum to Ukrainian troops in Mariupol to surrender or die expired on Wednesday afternoon with no mass capitulation, but the commander of a unit believed to be holding out in the besieged city said his forces could survive just days or hours.  Thousands of Russian troops backed by artillery and rocket barrages were attempting to advance elsewhere in what Ukrainian officials call the Battle of the Donbas – a push by Moscow to seize two eastern provinces it claims on behalf of separatists.

China’s soybean output is set to increase by 25.8% in 2022, an agriculture ministry official said on Wednesday, amid major efforts to boost oilseed production. The land planted with soybeans will expand by 16.7% this year, said Tang Ke, director general of the market department, under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 3.37 million tonnes last month from the U.S., down from 7.18 million a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

The current forecast for the Central US and Upper Plains is wet over the next 10 days.  There will be two more storms move through the Midwest in the next week, then we look to have warmer and drier weather.  Heavy rains will fall in the Delta of up to 4-5 inches in the next week and the Central US will see 1-3 inches.  The only strong evidence of drought is out in Nebraska, Western Kansas and South Dakota.

These markets are due for a major correction at any time.  The Russians think they are on the verge of a major victory, and that very well may be the case.  I think that’s why prices are backing off.  All the late buyers of corn, beans and wheat are holding very risky positions as we are at decade high prices.  There are more things that can turn negative than positive at this point. 

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Stronger markets to start the week with corn up 15, soybeans up 24 and wheat up 22.

Grain markets are being led by wheat.  Wheat futures were down about this much on Thursday, so it looks like more back and forth trading against the highs.  The War wages on in the Ukraine and a belief is setting in that not many exports are going to come out of there anytime soon with planting even more than a concern.  With the ports out, supplies are very limited.  Even if you can get in the field, fuel is hard to come by. The Agriculture Ministry in Ukraine is saying that plantings will be down 17%, but that seems unrealistic.

The forecast for South American turned to dry in Central Brazil and wet in Argentina.  Second season corn will need a couple more rains, for now there is none in the forecast.  Harvest in Argentina is 19% complete for corn and 14% in soybeans.  This would be ahead of normal.

The week ahead is very wet for the Central US with 3-5 inches forecast in parts of Missouri and Iowa.  Most all of Ilinois will see a couple inches of rain.  The Northern Plains has also turned to where North Dakota also has good chances or rain.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn up 6, soybeans down 20 and wheat up 38.

60 Minutes had an interview with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy last night. The Ukraine is not going to give up or concede any territory to the Russian, but he badly wants this to be over.  He says they are going to need help and not just in weapons.  A no-fly zone would go a long way, but he is going to run out of people to fight.  Money and weapons will not win this war and that’s the aid the Ukraine has gotten to this point.  The Western World is afraid that standing up to Russia will cause WWIII.  Russia is mounting up more troops and even recruiting older people to add to what they believe will be an even longer retracted war.

Ukraine’s grain traders’ union said the country is only able to export 600k tonnes of grains and oilseeds at this point, but “may increase capacity” to 2 MMT; that compares to 6 MMT per month pre-war. In March, the country only exported 300k tonnes combined. They see 2021/22 wheat exports at 10 MMT with corn at 20 MMT, down from 19 MMT and 23 MMT estimated by the USDA. They see 2022 wheat output at 18.2 MMT, down from 30.3 MMT in 2021, with corn at 23.1 MMT, compared with 37.6 MMT LY.
NASS will report winter wheat conditions this afternoon. Look for ratings to fall again for the hard wheat by 1-2% down to 28-29% good to excellent.  Dry conditions persist in the hard wheat growing region further deteriorating the crop.  Corn planting should be 4-5% complete and Spring wheat should be 5-6%.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are higher to start the day with corn up 5 and soybeans up 15.

The USDA will release their April WASDE at 11am today. Estimates are listed below.

USDA Ending Stocks (million bu)

For Friday’s USDA Report the trade is looking for reduced stocks in US carryout for both corn and beans.  Export sales are strong and with the Ukraine and Russia out of the market, most think that more will flow to the US.  Switches from China out of the Ukraine could amount to an increase in US purchases at a time when there would usually be almost none as South America takes over Chinese business.

European Union nations have frozen some 29.5 billion euros ($32.1 billion) in assets linked to Russian and Belarusian individuals and entities since the bloc adopted its first sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The frozen assets include boats, helicopters, real estate and artwork valued at almost 6.7 billion euros. Additionally, the EU has blocked approximately 196 billion euros worth of transactions, it said.

Japan will ban imports of Russian coal, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, adding to pressure on Moscow after the EU announced its own halt to the fuel.

The coal plan signals a policy reversal for Japan, which had previously drawn a line at cutting energy ties to Russia because of its heavy dependence on fuel imports. Russian coal imports make up about 13% of Japan’s power-generating supply and are also used in steel-making and the cement industry.

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com