Good Morning,

Markets have made a bit of a rebound during the overnight trading session. Corn and soybeans both closed at 5 cents higher. Currently, corn is trading 3 cents higher and soybeans are trading unchanged. Weather maps continue to be watched very closely to help determine the fate of this year’s crop. The Midwest is set to have a substantial heat wave that will remain until Sunday of this weekend. There are some areas of concern especially on the Iowa, Missouri border. The markets will definitely try and gauge the damage that will be done to those areas in the next couple of days. However, with the shift in weather and more rain expected across much of the Corn Belt, the hot weather has become less dire and we have seen the markets take out some risk premium that we saw last week. Anticipation is beginning to build around the release of the re-survey data that will be available in August. With anxiety still high over this year’s supply potential, I expect that we will continue to see volatile markets, but I expect the markets to trade within a range, not moving too far one way or the other. Until traders have a better handle on where supply will be with August’s USDA report, I believe the weather will continue to drive the markets here in the short-run. I would advise producers to continue to take advantage of the great markets we have seen and consider contracting any old or new crop in the next weeks to come. With the way this year has gone, it isn’t safe to say how the August report will go. I wouldn’t want any producers to miss locking in their crops at good levels if the report comes out estimating ample supply.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

A change in weather forecasts mixed with some unanticipated precipitation has drove the markets lower here in the last 24 hours. This morning corn is currently trading 7 cents lower and soybeans are trading 9 cents lower. The extended forecasts now show a quicker return to cooler temperatures across much of the U.S. growing region. The warmer temperatures are now expected to break by early next week as the ridge of high pressure that brings the hotter weather will move back over the Rockies by this weekend. Also, Hurricane Barry’s remnants moved farther west than originally anticipated. The whole southern half of IL sat in the path of the tropical storm’s remnants and collected some much needed precipitation. There is currently a system that started in eastern NE this morning and is making its way across western IA bringing some much needed rain to that region as well. In our area, we are still seeing chances of rain mid-week and there are now chances of showers showing for this weekend.

Another driving force for the market action was yesterday’s weekly crop ratings report. To some surprise the good to excellent ratings did improve a bit with yesterday’s report. Granted, the jump in improvements only increased by 1% for both corn and soybeans on a national level with 58% of corn rated as good to excellent and 54% of beans rated as good to excellent. Here in Wisconsin, corn ratings increased 1% from the week before rounding off at 60% good to excellent and soybeans didn’t change remaining at 64% good to excellent. Ultimately, the currents crop ratings and weather are definitely not ideal but both are moving the right way here in this crucial mid-July time frame. With a greater ease in the weather forecasts we could definitely see further decreases in prices. I would advise producers to call in and discuss the best opportunities to lock in any of their crop at the best levels.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans opened very strong last night, but despite its initial nickel plus gain prices have since filled those gaps. Corn and beans are currently trading lower this morning. Corn is down 8 cents and soybeans are down 10 cents. The hot and dry outlook for the next 10 days still remains in the forecast. There are some chances for rain in MN and here in WI mid-week, but the majority of the Corn Belt is expected to remain dry. Temperatures are expected to push 100 degrees across much of the U.S. growing region. The hot weather lingers at a time that isn’t so welcome for our crops and certainly adds some risk premium to the markets. The weekly crop progress report will be released after the close today and it is expected that there will be a decline in good to excellent ratings for corn and soybeans. This week, markets will be focusing on a break in the weather and looking for more precipitation along with keeping an eye on the exact path of Tropical Storm Barry’s remnants. I think if we don’t see more normal temperatures and added moisture more risk premium will be added to the markets here in the short-run.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are a bit higher this Friday morning with corn currently up 6 cents and soybeans up 5 cents. Yesterday’s report really didn’t cause much excitement in trade and really only mattered for a short period of time. The report was traded on for what seemed like 30 minutes and the big highlights were the largest old crop corn carryout we have seen in 30 years along with numbers showing tightening global wheat supplies. Traders quickly moved on from the report and shifted their attention back to the weather. With a hotter and drier extended forecast, markets were steadily bought and making session highs by the close. Moving forward, I believe the markets will continue to focus their attention on the warm and dry weather expected for much of the Corn Belt. Patience seems to be running a bit thin regarding the uncertainty of this new crop and any threat to yield is going to keep the markets focus despite the large amount of old crop stocks that are being kept in storage. As long as the weather looks threatening, market prices will be well supported. With the markets being up, it gives producers a great opportunity to sell their crop at profitable levels. If you are sitting on old crop corn I would consider selling some amount in the days to come because some unexpected weather could cause a sharp response in prices.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Volume and trade action slowed through the overnight of trade as traders are waiting to see the USDA report that is set to be released at 11 a.m. The markets have consolidated over the course of the last 24 hours and corn and soybeans are currently down a cent this morning. Typically, the July WASDE report is a quiet one as the USDA adopts the June acreage number and leaves yield unchanged. With this year being a non-typical one, it will be interesting to see if the USDA breaks its normal tendencies and makes bigger changes to the supply side of the equation than in years past. This is impossible to know prior to the data being released and leaves the market susceptible to a surprise in trade this afternoon. However, market analysts have predicted what the numbers on the report could be and are as follows:

USDA 2019-20 corn and soybean production:
USDA July 2019-20 Estimate Average of analysts’ estimates Range of analysts’ Estimates USDA June Estimate
Corn Production 13.875 13.664 13.100 – 13.960 13.680
Corn Yield 166 165 162 – 167 166
Soy Production 3.845 3.883 3.738 – 4.100 4.150
Soy Yield 48.5 48.6 47 – 51 49.5

USDA 2018-19 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks:
USDA July 2018-19 end-stocks estimates Average of analysts’ estimates Range of analysts’ estimates USDA June 2018-19 end-stocks estimates
Corn 2.340 2.197 2.065 – 2.295 2.195
Soybeans 1.050 1.044 0.935 – 1.137 1.070

USDA 2019-20 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks:
USDA July 2019-20 end-stocks estimates Average of analysts’ estimates Range of analysts’ estimates USDA June 2018-19 end-stock estimates
Corn 2.010 1.692 1.450 – 1.975 1.675
Soybeans 0.795 0.812 0.558 – 1.040 1.045

The numbers that analysts are predicting set the tone for more of a bearish response in the corn market and more of a bullish response in the soybeans market. Though the initial reaction to the report may be sharp, I think the markets will shift their attention back to the weather and keep eyes on extended forecasts.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com