Good Morning,

Nice spring rains and higher markets to start the day. Corn is up 8 soybeans are up 5 and wheat is up 12.

For the week ended Apr 2, ethanol production was 975,000 barrels per day (the uptick is less than expected by analysts, who had forecast production to rise by as much as 70,000 barrels per day this week); up 1% versus a week ago, up 45.1% versus a year ago.  Stocks were 20.6 mil barrels (down 500,000 barrels from the previous week’s report–this drop exceeds the expectations of analysts who had forecast a drop of as much as 400,000 barrels); down 2.2% versus last week, down 23.8% versus last year.

Weekly export sales were nothing too exciting with old corn coming in at 29.8 million bushel compared to 74.4 million on the 10 week average. Soybeans were negative 3.4 million bushels due to cancelations. The 10 week average for soybeans is 12.8 million bushel.

Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report are for the 2021/22 corn carryout near 1.379 billion bushel, soybean carryout at 118 million bushel and wheat at 846 million bushel. This report will be released at 11am.

US weather has a good amount of rain coming to the Central Corn belt and a lot of rain for the Delta.  Totals in Illinois will reach 2 inches where in the South they will get up to 5 inches.  Planting delays will continue in the Delta.  The Western US shows more humidity on the maps this morning than yesterday, with most of the rain down in Texas.  The Dakotas looks to miss most any rain as the system sets up further to the East up into Minnesota.
While things look very bullish in the corn market right now, there are some reasons for anyone long corn to be cautious. Reports from ADM that China will not be taking all the corn that they currently have purchased and will be cancelling or rolling those purchases out to next year. There are also reports from ethanol plants across the Midwest that are looking to shutdown this summer due to corn shortages in their area and extremely high basis levels. One or both of these scenarios playing out would dramatically change the carryout numbers and send the markets in a freefall.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning

Markets are mixed this morning with old corn up 3, new corn down 3 and soybeans up 8 across the board.

NASS rated the winter wheat good/excellent at 53% this week vs 62% a year ago.  U.S. Spring Wheat planted was 3% versus 3% a year ago, 2% average. U.S. Corn planted was 2% versus 2% last year, and 2% average.  Much of the wheat crop is poor to very poor at 16%.  Some of this wheat crop is going to get ripped up if the yield potential is not there.  Spring wheat is also going to give way to some acres of corn and beans with where price ratios are headed.  Wheat is an unpopular crop and acres could end up at 100 year lows.

Bloomberg’s estimates for Friday’s WASDE report put corn ending stocks at 1.379 billion bushel vs. 1.502 billion last month. Soybeans are estimated at 118 million vs. 120 million last month. Thoughts are that the USDA will revise their export numbers this month to accommodate the rapid pace we have been selling to China thru the first quarter of the year. Through March 25, the total commitments of US corn were at 2.588 billion bushels already reaching the USDA’s 2.600 billion bushels export projection. Expectations are that they could raise t 100-200 million bushel in Friday’s report. The big question that no one knows is what will China decide to ship by the end of August vs. rolling forward to next year? That decision could dramatically impact prices.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are higher to start the week with old corn up 2, new corn up 6 and soybeans up 18.

Thursday’s trade was kind of a mess in the spread trades between a whole host of commodities.  Post report trade can make some weird things happen as a lot of bets are exited. This is not unusual for big reports, which is why right or wrong they can be very dangerous.  It was bullish for all beans, and yet the price for May beans was down 35 Thursday.  Today should return to more of a normal trade.
This will be day three of liquidation from the crop report.  The market should start to normalize today. China is out of the market on Holiday.  We also have a USDA report on Friday of this week.

Archer Daniels Midland said on Thursday it would restart ethanol production at two of its U.S. corn dry mills this year, as the grains trader expects demand for the biofuel to rebound from a pandemic-led slump. The company had last April decided to temporarily idle ethanol production at its facilities in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Columbus, Nebraska due to lower gasoline demand. Demand for corn-based ethanol, blended into gasoline, is set to rise as people are expected to start driving more as COVID-19 vaccinations gather pace and as China imports more volumes. While ethanol demand may continue to increase, exports should start to taper off with high prices as the US loses its competitive pricing to other suppliers.

Last Thursday’s stocks report was neutral to bearish while the acres report was bullish the markets. I would not be surprised to see last weeks 91.14 million acres come in north of 93 million when planting wraps up this spring. Early weather has been good and planting is rolling in the south. If good weather holds for the next 60 day’s we will see more corn acres planted.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

REPORT DAY!

Nothing but today’s report on the mind of traders. Here are the estimates heading into the report:

March Quarterly Stocks (billion bushel)

Planting Intentions (million acres)

Check back after 11am to see where the numbers came in.

If you havent taken risk off ahead of today, I would suggest calling your buyer to get something done.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are lower this am with corn down 6 and soybeans down 5 to start the week.

Going into the crop report, the funds are still holding a hefty amount of corn futures, not very far from the record amount they owned in January.  Traders are long soybeans, but are nowhere as close to as long from January as South American harvest has tempered buying for the past two months.

The dry trend in Brazil is expanding to the Southern half of South American.  There is almost no rain in the forecast from Mato Grosso and South.  Argentina is turning to a drier trend along with Central and Eastern Brazil.  Temps will be below normal in Argentina and above normal in North and Eastern Brazil.  Harvest is going to accelerate in the next 10 days.  Late season corn is going to need a rain at some point.  The weather forecast is not bullish or bearish.

USDA Secretary Vilsak is seeking ways to get more acres signed up for the CRP program.  The US has about 20 million acres in the program and Congress had set the program closer to 25 million.   A quarter of the acres will expire in the next year.
Here are the estimates for Wednesday’s report:

March Quarterly Stocks (billion bushel)

Planting Intentions (million acres)

The increase in corn and soybean acres is mostly coming from prevent plant, cotton and spring wheat.

Look for more selling ahead of Wednesdays USDA planting intentions and stocks report as traders make slight adjustments to their positions.

Reminder that there are no markets on Friday 4/2/21 as the trade observes Good Friday.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didionmilling.com