Corn chopped around last week as weather forecasts continue to look non-threatening ahead of next week’s USDA report. September corn lost 6 cents on the week while December and March futures closed 5 cents lower. December futures managed to break below the $4 level on Wednesday reaching $3.9675 before closing higher. This will serve as our new support level for now, but I expect Tuesdays report to test it. The funds ended the week short 134,848 corn and 73,594 soybean contracts.

Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move along slowly, advancing only 1.3% last week to reach 89.3% complete. This trails last year by 7% and the five-year average by 3%. This slower pace of harvest is a major reason US old crop exports have been so good coming down the stretch.

New crop US corn sales are picking up and gave the markets some support last Thursday with a whopping 124.5 million bushel reported. 2025/26 new crop sales are currently the second highest in the last 10 years. Low prices and expectations for a larger crop have supported sales.

Tuesday the USDA will release August Production report. The average yield estimates are 184.3 for corn and 52.9 for soybeans, but it sounds like traders’ estimates are higher for both crops due to excellent condition reports & strong satellite imagery.

USDA 2024/25 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025 Yield (Bushels per Acre)

USDA 2025/26 Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Corn condition ratings came in at 73% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 67% and the 64% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 88% and 42% respectively.

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Corn continued to grind lower last week with favorable weather, crop conditions and traders’ confidence in a record US crop as we enter August. September futures closed 10 cents lower while December and March futures closed 8 cents lower last week. The funds ended the week short 141,944 corn and 38,772 soybean contracts.

Weather across the US looks to be near normal with below normal precipitation in the 5–10-day range. A period of hotter and drier temperatures are expected in the 10–15-day forecasts. Several areas across the corn belt could benefit from some dryer weather in the coming week or two.

December and March futures each lost 12 cents during the month of July, although it seemed like a lot more. The December low at $4.075 from a couple weeks ago remains intact but may get tested before the next WASDE report. I think the funds are going to continue to hold on to their short positions until we start to see some new crop producer sales. The US producer is staring at a record crop with very few sales on the books. In my opinion this is telling the funds to hold onto their short positions as the market could trend lower. I think the traders are currently trading a 186 bpa yield. We may see that number printed a few times by the USDA in the coming months, but I think we will be below that in the final report that comes in January. I would still advise anyone needing to put on coverage for Q4 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026 to take advantage of current prices, as we are always one political headline away from the markets doing an about face!

Corn condition ratings came in at 73% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 68% and the 64% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 76% and 26% respectively.

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Last week was a slower and lower week in the corn markets as rains fell across the Midwest to excessive heat concerns. December and March futures ended the week 9 cents lower while May futures closed 8 cents lower. The funds ended the week short 139,763 corn and 2,891 soybean contracts.

While the dome did materialize, bringing higher temperatures across the Midwest last week, temperatures did not reach the original forecasted highs. Favorable precipitation helped negate the impact of the high temperatures, particularly in the Eastern Corn Belt. The main driving factor behind price movement, or the lack thereof, can be attributed to the ever-changing forecasts that come out multiple times per day. Current forecasts have heat moving out of the Midwest by late this week which should help late pollinating corn avoid a risk of yield loss.

The United States struck a deal with Japan last week that lowers tariffs on auto imports and spares Tokyo from punishing new levies on other goods in exchange for a $550 billion package of US bound investment and loans. Japan has been the second largest importer of US corn this year with 514 million bushels year to date. Agreeing to the deal may not result in additional corn exports, but it definitely helps secure current business.

In Louisiana, growers started harvesting corn over the weekend and may be fulfilling some gulf barge demand early next week. This should start to impact basis levels across the US in the coming weeks as new crops begin to hit the market, quenching some of the old crop demand.

Corn condition ratings were steady last week at 74% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 67% and the 64% five-year average. Only 2 years (2014 & 2016) in the last 14 have had better conditions at this point. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 56% and 14%, respectively.

So far, we have been unable to fill the CBOT gaps made back on July 7^th. I still believe these gaps are in play and will be filled, it may take longer than expected if mother nature doesn’t give the traders some bullish weather in the coming week. Historically late August is when the CBOT bottoms out and we begin our trek higher. This year may be an anomaly as we may set lows in July. Anyone looking to cover new crop needs should consider locking in some prices now to take advantage of current levels. All CBOT prices for the 2025 crop are currently trading in the bottom 16^th percentile for the 5-year period. (only 16% of the time has the market been below current levels over the last five years) There is a lot more room to the upside and while we are trading a record size crop, I believe it will be smaller than current estimates in the end.

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The corn markets bounced last week and closed higher in 4 of the 5 trading sessions. With some heat in the extended forecast, tariff talks that appear to be making ground the funds were net buyers last week. September corn ended the week 12 cents higher. December and March futures both ended 16 cents higher for the week. The funds are short 145,044 corn and long 3,808 soybean contracts.

Forecasts have a large dome forming in the 6–10-day models that is going to bring some hot weather across the major corn growing areas as we head into August. The market’s concern is the timing of this heat as it coincides with pollination in a lot of the major growing areas. Environmental stresses such as high temperatures cause issues by affecting silking and pollen dispersal. There are already issues of poor pollination being reported across several states, including Illinois, Missouri, and Iowa, mainly with corn planted during a specific window in mid-April.

The U.S. trade landscape is entering a high-stakes phase as President Trump accelerates his global tariff campaign. A trade deal has been said to be mostly inked with Indonesia, which includes 4.5 billion dollars of purchases in Agricultural goods. Another major development is the looming July 21 deadline with Canada, where negotiations have intensified following Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on all Canadian imports to 35% beginning August 1. Canada had previously prepared retaliatory tariffs but paused them after Trump’s formal notice. While no final agreement has been reached, the tone has shifted toward resolution, with the August 1 deadline serving as a hard stop for negotiations.

US corn remains competitive on the export market. Brazilian corn prices slipped lower last week, but US Gulf corn is still the best deal around to most markets. US Corn into Europe is about 10 dollars a ton cheaper than Brazilian. The US competitiveness is due to Brazil’s slow harvest pace. Brazil’s Safrinha corn is about 40% to 45% harvested vs. 70% to 75% last year at this time. Brazil may become more competitive during the early US harvest time frame when their harvest is wrapping up and looking for export homes.

Corn condition ratings were steady last week at 74% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 68% and the 65% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 34% and 7%, respectively.

As I stated last week, prices typically bottom out in August/September, and we grind higher after that. This year may be the exception where we set our lows in July. I look for the markets to fill the CZ25 gap at $4.3575 early this week. If we fill that gap I think the markets are heading to the $4.45-4.50 level where they will be met with resistance and ultimately trade sideways until we get a better gauge of new crop yields.

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Another week of bearish news or lack of bullish news had the markets on the run. September, December and March futures all ended the week about 25 cents lower. Coming out of the July 4^th weekend we had favorable growing conditions with several areas receiving rain that outperformed forecasts and more on the way. This coupled with President Trump announcing new tariffs had the markets gap lower on Monday and continue the selloff throughout the week. The funds ended the week short 171,287 corn contracts and short 6,816 soybean contracts.

President Trump announced that two of the US’s biggest corn buyers would face a 25% tariff imposed starting August 1st. The president believes the two countries were not removing their tariffs against US goods or making progress in negotiations. The 25% level is a starting point against South Korea and Japan (and will be adjusted upward if there is a retaliatory action taken). The form letter sent to the two nations indicated the 25% level can be reduced according to the removal of trade barriers to US goods. Japan has been the second largest destination for US corn behind Mexico while South Korea is the fourth largest importer of US corn. Combined these two countries have accounted for more than 800 million bushels this year.

On Friday the USDA released their July WASDE which was in line with analysts’ pre-report estimates. Beginning stocks were cut by 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion as an increase in old crop exports offset a reduction in feed use. New crop production was reduced by 115 million bushels due to lower planted and harvested acres.

USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025 US Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Weekly crop conditions showed 74% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent category, which is up 1% from last week and ahead of last year and the five-year average by 9%

Traders are going to focus on two things over the next few weeks, US Weather and Trade relations (Tariffs).

Weather can still have a negative impact on the size of this year’s crop, but it is quickly running out of time to do it. I believe the market is currently trading 185-187 bushel per acre yield, so there is a greater risk to the downside. Trade relations could be clearer in the next two weeks if President Trump sticks to his August 1^st deadline. I look for a mixed bag on this front. Some countries will work out deals with the US while others will stall and have tariffs increased or deadlines extended.

Historically the CBOT bottoms out in August/September and we grind higher after that. This year may be the exception where we set our lows in July. We are about 12 cents away from a key support level of $3.99 CZ25. I would not be surprised to see this taken out in the next week or two before we trend higher. As mentioned above, the risk of the crop getting smaller is greater than it increasing at this point.

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